* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * BUD EP032018 06/12/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 100 93 87 84 78 69 60 50 42 32 26 25 22 V (KT) LAND 100 93 87 84 78 69 60 50 43 33 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 100 92 84 77 71 61 51 44 38 32 27 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 9 7 4 2 1 2 5 7 15 24 26 21 24 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 -4 -5 0 0 0 0 -1 -2 -4 -4 -2 SHEAR DIR 28 45 45 345 226 144 266 272 256 242 235 246 252 SST (C) 27.2 26.8 26.3 25.8 25.4 24.5 23.6 22.8 23.6 25.6 25.4 23.9 21.2 POT. INT. (KT) 133 129 124 119 115 106 97 89 98 120 117 101 72 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -51.4 -51.8 -51.7 -51.1 -50.8 -50.9 -50.7 -50.4 -50.0 -50.0 -50.1 -49.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.8 1.0 1.3 1.6 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 4 5 4 4 4 4 5 4 3 4 5 3 3 700-500 MB RH 74 74 71 68 66 66 64 67 68 56 49 40 31 MODEL VTX (KT) 28 26 25 27 25 24 21 18 15 9 4 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 30 49 49 40 45 59 42 35 38 52 31 68 35 200 MB DIV 104 91 51 21 22 16 31 28 41 21 10 -14 0 700-850 TADV -2 -1 0 0 -1 -3 -8 -6 1 1 10 19 9 LAND (KM) 367 368 374 373 341 226 100 14 20 45 -109 -191 -258 LAT (DEG N) 18.4 18.8 19.1 19.5 19.9 20.9 22.0 23.4 25.2 27.2 29.5 31.3 32.6 LONG(DEG W) 108.5 108.8 109.0 109.2 109.3 109.6 110.1 110.5 110.8 111.0 111.1 111.0 110.9 STM SPEED (KT) 4 4 4 4 5 6 6 8 10 11 10 8 6 HEAT CONTENT 6 5 4 4 3 0 0 0 0 7 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 3 CX,CY: -1/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 115 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 546 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 88.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -6. -10. -19. -29. -38. -44. -47. -48. -49. -52. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. 0. 2. 5. 8. 9. 9. 7. 4. 1. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 1. 3. 5. 7. 9. PERSISTENCE -4. -6. -6. -6. -4. -2. -1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -1. -0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -2. -1. -4. -6. -9. -13. -17. -25. -29. -27. -25. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -7. -13. -16. -22. -31. -40. -50. -58. -68. -74. -75. -78. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 100. LAT, LON: 18.4 108.5 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP032018 BUD 06/12/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.11 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 23.9 40.5 to 149.3 0.00 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.6 18.9 to 1.4 0.82 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 4.4 0.0 to 106.7 0.04 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 100.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.43 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 57.8 -33.0 to 156.2 0.48 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 37.8 to 2.1 999.00 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.2 to -1.9 999.00 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 202.6 735.9 to -82.5 0.65 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Bayesian: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP032018 BUD 06/12/18 18 UTC ## ## ERR=2, BOTH IR FILES BAD OR MISSING