* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BUD EP032018 06/12/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 110 107 103 100 95 82 70 55 43 32 23 24 21 V (KT) LAND 110 107 103 100 95 82 70 55 40 35 29 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 110 105 98 91 84 72 61 50 37 33 33 28 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 2 2 3 1 0 1 5 7 14 16 25 22 27 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 -1 -3 -3 0 0 -1 -3 1 -3 -4 0 SHEAR DIR 14 79 106 165 170 27 315 277 274 251 238 245 262 SST (C) 27.5 27.1 26.6 26.2 25.8 24.9 23.9 23.0 22.3 23.5 25.7 25.2 22.1 POT. INT. (KT) 137 132 127 123 118 110 100 91 84 97 121 115 83 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -51.5 -51.0 -51.3 -51.6 -50.7 -51.2 -50.7 -50.9 -50.4 -49.8 -49.9 -49.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.9 1.3 1.7 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 5 5 4 5 4 5 3 4 4 5 2 700-500 MB RH 76 73 72 71 69 65 67 64 66 58 48 41 32 MODEL VTX (KT) 29 27 25 27 27 24 23 18 15 10 4 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 9 38 47 45 37 60 45 54 26 56 42 27 39 200 MB DIV 103 94 80 50 25 38 36 27 20 30 -2 4 -27 700-850 TADV -5 -1 0 0 0 -4 -5 -4 5 0 -5 12 9 LAND (KM) 363 362 364 362 365 284 144 40 -18 -2 24 -127 -217 LAT (DEG N) 18.2 18.6 18.9 19.3 19.6 20.4 21.6 22.8 24.2 25.8 27.8 29.9 32.2 LONG(DEG W) 108.3 108.6 108.8 109.0 109.1 109.4 109.9 110.4 110.9 111.1 111.2 111.2 111.1 STM SPEED (KT) 5 4 4 4 4 6 6 7 8 9 10 11 11 HEAT CONTENT 6 5 4 4 3 0 0 0 0 1 3 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 6 CX,CY: -3/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 110 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 584 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 82.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -2. -4. -8. -12. -23. -34. -44. -53. -58. -59. -60. -62. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 3. 5. 8. 9. 11. 11. 10. 7. 4. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 4. 5. 7. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -2. -1. -2. -5. -7. -14. -18. -24. -30. -26. -24. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 3. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -7. -10. -15. -28. -40. -55. -67. -78. -87. -86. -89. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 110. LAT, LON: 18.2 108.3 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP032018 BUD 06/12/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 17.4 40.5 to 149.3 0.00 0.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 1.5 18.9 to 1.4 0.99 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 4.4 0.0 to 106.7 0.04 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 110.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.30 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 70.4 -33.0 to 156.2 0.55 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.71 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.2 to -1.9 0.42 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 206.8 735.9 to -82.5 0.65 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.3 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 9.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.7% 0.5% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP032018 BUD 06/12/18 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##