* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BUD EP032018 06/12/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 115 115 114 108 102 90 77 65 52 41 30 25 23 V (KT) LAND 115 115 114 108 102 90 77 65 52 38 34 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 115 113 107 99 91 77 65 54 44 34 33 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 5 3 4 4 6 4 7 9 16 23 27 22 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -1 0 0 0 -2 1 -1 -2 0 -1 -3 -5 SHEAR DIR 31 56 55 65 79 345 353 282 272 254 244 239 243 SST (C) 28.0 27.6 27.2 26.8 26.4 25.6 24.4 23.3 22.3 21.9 24.1 25.8 23.9 POT. INT. (KT) 142 137 133 129 125 117 105 94 84 80 104 122 102 200 MB T (C) -51.5 -52.0 -51.6 -51.0 -51.3 -51.1 -50.7 -50.9 -50.8 -50.7 -50.0 -49.9 -50.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.6 1.0 1.3 1.7 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 4 5 4 4 4 5 4 3 3 5 4 700-500 MB RH 75 77 74 74 71 66 63 63 64 63 54 47 44 MODEL VTX (KT) 23 26 27 24 24 24 22 20 17 13 7 4 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 1 4 28 49 40 41 58 48 35 22 47 18 61 200 MB DIV 149 110 84 58 46 17 25 25 27 41 8 3 -15 700-850 TADV -5 -3 -2 -2 -1 0 -6 -6 -5 3 1 4 10 LAND (KM) 353 353 352 348 350 354 235 115 58 -30 30 -65 -238 LAT (DEG N) 17.8 18.2 18.5 18.9 19.2 19.8 20.8 21.9 23.1 24.7 26.6 28.8 31.3 LONG(DEG W) 107.9 108.2 108.4 108.6 108.8 109.2 109.7 110.3 110.8 111.2 111.3 111.0 110.5 STM SPEED (KT) 6 4 4 4 4 5 6 6 7 9 10 12 12 HEAT CONTENT 6 7 6 5 4 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 6 CX,CY: -4/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 105 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 547 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 80.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -2. -4. -8. -12. -22. -34. -45. -54. -61. -65. -65. -66. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -0. 1. 3. 5. 8. 9. 9. 8. 4. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. 0. 1. 3. 5. 6. PERSISTENCE 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. -1. -3. -8. -12. -19. -21. -19. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -1. 0. 1. 3. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. -1. -7. -13. -25. -38. -50. -63. -74. -85. -90. -92. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 115. LAT, LON: 17.8 107.9 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP032018 BUD 06/12/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 18.3 40.5 to 149.3 0.00 0.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.1 18.9 to 1.4 0.79 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 5.6 0.0 to 106.7 0.05 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 115.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.23 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 89.4 -33.0 to 156.2 0.65 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.70 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.2 to -1.9 0.43 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 161.6 735.9 to -82.5 0.70 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.6 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 12.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.9% 0.5% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.6% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP032018 BUD 06/12/18 06 UTC ## ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ## ## AHI= 1 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##