* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BUD EP032018 06/12/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 110 112 113 112 110 100 90 78 66 54 45 35 33 V (KT) LAND 110 112 113 112 110 100 90 78 66 49 45 32 29 V (KT) LGEM 110 110 107 101 95 83 72 62 53 41 39 31 28 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 8 4 4 3 6 6 4 6 12 13 19 22 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 0 1 4 3 -1 -3 -3 0 -2 3 0 -3 SHEAR DIR 69 34 34 15 27 355 350 280 265 268 251 232 243 SST (C) 28.4 28.2 27.9 27.7 27.4 26.5 25.8 25.0 23.8 23.4 24.9 26.6 25.4 POT. INT. (KT) 146 144 140 138 135 126 119 111 99 96 112 130 117 200 MB T (C) -50.9 -51.7 -52.0 -51.5 -51.0 -51.4 -50.7 -51.1 -50.6 -51.1 -50.6 -50.0 -49.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.7 1.0 1.6 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 4 5 5 4 5 4 5 3 4 4 6 700-500 MB RH 79 78 79 77 77 70 68 68 66 67 62 54 45 MODEL VTX (KT) 26 25 26 27 27 25 25 23 21 18 14 7 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 14 9 5 28 47 42 59 50 62 35 56 42 15 200 MB DIV 181 156 101 80 72 67 46 15 11 24 53 -8 0 700-850 TADV -4 -5 -3 -2 -1 0 -1 -1 -5 1 -2 -10 8 LAND (KM) 329 322 317 303 290 295 312 206 56 -31 40 0 -175 LAT (DEG N) 17.4 17.8 18.1 18.5 18.8 19.6 20.3 21.2 22.4 23.9 25.7 27.7 29.8 LONG(DEG W) 107.3 107.5 107.7 107.8 107.9 108.4 108.7 109.2 109.9 110.4 110.6 110.6 110.5 STM SPEED (KT) 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 6 8 8 10 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 6 6 8 8 7 3 2 0 0 0 1 1 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 6 CX,CY: -3/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 100 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 544 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -4. -7. -15. -25. -35. -43. -50. -53. -54. -55. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -1. 0. 3. 5. 8. 9. 10. 9. 7. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 2. 4. 5. PERSISTENCE 3. 3. 3. 3. 1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 1. 1. -1. -1. -3. -6. -10. -14. -21. -20. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 2. 0. -10. -20. -32. -44. -56. -65. -75. -77. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 110. LAT, LON: 17.4 107.3 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP032018 BUD 06/12/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 30.7 40.5 to 149.3 0.00 0.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.5 18.9 to 1.4 0.76 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 7.0 0.0 to 106.7 0.07 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 110.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.30 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 118.0 -33.0 to 156.2 0.80 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.86 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.2 to -1.9 0.42 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 38.0 735.9 to -82.5 0.85 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.3 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 1.4 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 17.8% 22.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 4.8% 3.8% 2.1% 1.6% 0.5% 1.4% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 4.2% 1.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 8.9% 9.0% 0.7% 0.5% 0.2% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP032018 BUD 06/12/18 00 UTC ## ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ## ## AHI= 1 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##