* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BUD EP032018 06/11/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 105 108 108 107 105 96 84 74 61 49 37 26 21 V (KT) LAND 105 108 108 107 105 96 84 74 61 49 37 25 26 V (KT) LGEM 105 107 105 101 95 82 69 59 51 43 35 26 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 14 14 12 12 8 9 6 5 5 10 7 5 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -3 -3 -1 2 4 -1 -6 -1 -1 0 1 -2 SHEAR DIR 70 79 58 65 62 67 45 54 335 287 274 249 234 SST (C) 28.6 28.3 28.1 27.9 27.7 27.1 26.2 25.2 24.1 23.1 22.3 22.5 24.1 POT. INT. (KT) 149 145 142 140 138 132 123 113 102 91 83 85 101 200 MB T (C) -51.6 -51.0 -51.6 -51.9 -51.5 -51.4 -51.1 -50.9 -51.1 -50.9 -50.9 -50.6 -50.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.8 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.7 1.0 1.1 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 3 3 4 700-500 MB RH 79 76 76 78 77 74 69 66 62 64 60 51 41 MODEL VTX (KT) 25 27 26 27 27 26 24 23 20 17 14 7 4 850 MB ENV VOR 20 15 11 10 30 52 57 66 54 54 40 37 13 200 MB DIV 154 203 154 121 98 96 80 27 5 19 9 -23 -19 700-850 TADV -8 -4 -6 -2 -2 0 0 -2 -3 -4 1 0 0 LAND (KM) 369 371 381 374 367 355 342 308 200 108 69 -10 23 LAT (DEG N) 16.8 17.2 17.5 17.8 18.0 18.6 19.4 20.2 21.1 22.0 22.9 24.0 24.9 LONG(DEG W) 107.2 107.6 108.0 108.1 108.2 108.5 108.8 109.3 109.9 110.4 110.8 110.8 110.5 STM SPEED (KT) 7 5 4 3 3 4 4 5 5 5 5 5 4 HEAT CONTENT 7 6 6 7 7 6 4 2 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 90 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 407 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 96.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -3. -5. -11. -20. -29. -37. -44. -49. -52. -53. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -5. -6. -7. -6. -3. 0. 4. 6. 7. 7. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. PERSISTENCE 4. 5. 5. 4. 2. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. -2. -3. -6. -10. -14. -20. -21. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -4. -5. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 3. 2. -0. -9. -21. -31. -44. -56. -68. -79. -84. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 105. LAT, LON: 16.8 107.2 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP032018 BUD 06/11/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.56 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 37.9 40.5 to 149.3 0.00 0.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.8 18.9 to 1.4 0.35 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 6.6 0.0 to 106.7 0.06 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 105.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 146.0 -33.0 to 156.2 0.95 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.85 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.2 to -1.9 0.46 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 97.8 735.9 to -82.5 0.78 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.4 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 1.4 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 18.2% 20.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 5.9% 5.2% 2.9% 1.8% 0.7% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.7% 1.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 8.2% 9.0% 1.0% 0.6% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP032018 BUD 06/11/18 18 UTC ## ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ## ## AHI= 1 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##