* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BUD EP032018 06/11/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 90 96 100 98 96 90 81 74 63 52 43 36 29 V (KT) LAND 90 96 100 98 96 90 81 74 63 52 43 36 30 V (KT) LGEM 90 97 99 97 93 81 70 59 50 43 37 32 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 15 16 21 18 12 8 10 7 0 0 5 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 -4 -6 -1 5 5 -1 -3 0 1 1 0 SHEAR DIR 58 66 87 88 81 67 71 16 42 125 350 276 226 SST (C) 29.0 28.7 28.2 27.8 27.4 27.0 26.4 25.4 24.7 23.8 22.9 22.1 21.9 POT. INT. (KT) 154 150 145 140 135 130 125 115 107 99 89 81 79 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -51.8 -51.3 -51.1 -51.6 -51.5 -51.4 -51.1 -51.0 -51.0 -51.0 -51.2 -51.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 7 5 4 4 4 3 3 3 2 1 700-500 MB RH 84 83 78 76 77 73 73 69 67 63 64 64 63 MODEL VTX (KT) 21 22 23 21 21 22 21 21 19 16 14 13 11 850 MB ENV VOR 24 17 15 17 20 32 55 60 59 39 31 20 31 200 MB DIV 98 111 124 158 105 85 93 83 39 6 1 6 -10 700-850 TADV -11 -6 -5 -3 0 -2 1 -1 -4 -1 -6 -4 -1 LAND (KM) 337 331 324 317 319 334 322 318 314 193 91 22 -14 LAT (DEG N) 16.2 16.6 17.0 17.4 17.8 18.1 18.7 19.5 20.2 21.2 22.1 23.4 24.6 LONG(DEG W) 105.7 106.3 106.8 107.2 107.5 107.9 108.2 108.6 109.1 109.6 110.2 110.6 111.0 STM SPEED (KT) 9 7 6 5 4 3 4 4 5 6 6 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 11 9 7 7 7 6 4 2 1 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 10 CX,CY: -7/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 481 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. -0. -5. -11. -18. -24. -29. -32. -36. -38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -4. -7. -8. -9. -6. -3. -1. 2. 5. 5. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 6. 9. 9. 9. 6. 3. 1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. -0. -0. 1. -0. -1. -3. -6. -8. -9. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 3. 3. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 6. 10. 8. 6. -0. -9. -16. -27. -38. -47. -54. -61. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 90. LAT, LON: 16.2 105.7 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP032018 BUD 06/11/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 25.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.71 5.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 54.8 40.5 to 149.3 0.13 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.6 18.9 to 1.4 0.13 0.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 8.2 0.0 to 106.7 0.08 0.4 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 90.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.56 2.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 119.2 -33.0 to 156.2 0.80 3.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.80 4.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -1.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.2 to -1.9 0.56 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 80.0 735.9 to -82.5 0.80 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 25% is 3.3 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 1.5 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.7 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.0 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.4 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 25.1% 23.6% 17.5% 15.1% 12.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 8.7% 3.8% 1.9% 1.4% 0.5% 1.3% 0.4% 0.0% Bayesian: 12.0% 6.5% 1.8% 0.9% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 15.3% 11.3% 7.1% 5.8% 4.4% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP032018 BUD 06/11/18 06 UTC ## ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ## ## AHI= 1 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##