* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BUD EP032018 06/10/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 73 79 85 90 94 92 86 74 66 59 50 43 V (KT) LAND 65 73 79 85 90 94 92 86 74 66 59 50 39 V (KT) LGEM 65 73 80 84 87 87 82 73 63 55 48 41 32 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 4 9 4 7 11 5 6 4 2 1 4 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 0 3 -1 -1 4 1 -1 -3 -1 -5 -4 SHEAR DIR 45 25 57 82 104 79 75 67 335 11 257 258 271 SST (C) 29.9 29.5 29.1 28.7 28.2 27.3 26.6 25.9 25.1 24.2 23.0 21.9 20.9 POT. INT. (KT) 164 160 155 151 145 134 127 119 112 104 91 79 68 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -51.3 -51.5 -51.3 -51.4 -51.4 -51.0 -51.0 -51.0 -50.8 -50.8 -50.6 -50.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.7 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 7 6 6 5 5 4 4 3 3 2 1 700-500 MB RH 85 84 83 82 79 79 73 73 68 69 66 66 65 MODEL VTX (KT) 23 22 23 24 27 27 27 26 22 20 20 16 15 850 MB ENV VOR 0 13 24 25 28 50 53 76 59 75 37 36 24 200 MB DIV 76 95 96 115 123 121 87 74 54 31 39 16 -10 700-850 TADV -6 -6 -10 -7 -6 -2 -3 -1 0 -3 -2 -2 -1 LAND (KM) 339 305 284 270 253 276 281 283 315 223 34 13 -6 LAT (DEG N) 15.1 15.8 16.5 17.1 17.6 18.2 18.8 19.4 20.0 21.0 22.6 23.7 24.5 LONG(DEG W) 103.8 104.6 105.3 105.9 106.5 107.3 107.8 108.2 108.7 109.3 110.1 110.8 111.4 STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 9 8 6 4 4 4 5 7 8 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 28 17 13 11 9 10 8 4 2 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 9 CX,CY: -5/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 545 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 19.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 3. 1. -2. -5. -7. -10. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. PERSISTENCE 5. 7. 8. 8. 7. 6. 4. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 1. 4. 5. 5. 3. -2. -3. -4. -8. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 8. 14. 20. 25. 29. 27. 21. 9. 1. -6. -15. -22. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 15.1 103.8 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP032018 BUD 06/10/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 20.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.64 12.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 90.0 40.5 to 149.3 0.45 5.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.4 18.9 to 1.4 0.71 11.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 15.6 0.0 to 106.7 0.15 1.9 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 65.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.90 11.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 101.0 -33.0 to 156.2 0.71 7.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.82 9.8 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -3.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.0 2.2 to -1.9 0.54 0.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): -25.4 735.9 to -82.5 0.93 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 59% is 7.6 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 70% is 4.6 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 58% is 5.6 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 52% is 6.9 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 33% is 6.3 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 30% is 3.7 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 21% is 2.8 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.4 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 58.5% 70.3% 57.8% 52.1% 32.8% 29.8% 21.0% 7.9% Logistic: 42.5% 55.9% 44.3% 39.1% 24.5% 31.6% 13.2% 0.4% Bayesian: 47.8% 66.9% 49.6% 38.0% 17.8% 14.4% 2.3% 0.0% Consensus: 49.6% 64.4% 50.6% 43.1% 25.0% 25.3% 12.2% 2.8% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP032018 BUD 06/10/18 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##