* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BUD EP032018 06/10/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 63 69 76 83 94 97 92 86 75 67 58 48 V (KT) LAND 55 63 69 76 83 94 97 92 86 75 67 58 48 V (KT) LGEM 55 64 72 79 86 94 94 88 77 68 59 49 39 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 7 5 8 4 8 9 11 2 9 6 0 5 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 2 3 1 2 -2 0 0 0 -2 -3 0 -1 SHEAR DIR 22 39 359 18 86 115 95 79 288 67 62 79 285 SST (C) 30.3 29.8 29.4 29.0 28.5 27.7 26.7 26.1 25.6 24.9 23.8 22.6 21.4 POT. INT. (KT) 168 163 159 154 148 139 128 121 116 110 99 86 74 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.1 -51.3 -51.6 -51.5 -50.7 -51.3 -50.4 -51.3 -50.2 -51.1 -50.6 -50.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.7 0.6 0.8 0.6 0.8 0.5 0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 6 8 8 7 6 7 4 5 3 4 3 3 1 700-500 MB RH 86 85 84 83 84 81 79 76 74 71 70 67 68 MODEL VTX (KT) 21 22 20 23 25 28 29 27 27 23 22 20 16 850 MB ENV VOR -6 10 20 30 27 33 40 69 61 71 62 52 25 200 MB DIV 82 98 88 92 135 130 100 100 87 61 32 15 -17 700-850 TADV -8 -9 -9 -11 -7 -4 0 -7 0 -2 -2 -1 -3 LAND (KM) 398 343 314 314 304 292 309 298 295 320 204 97 73 LAT (DEG N) 14.4 15.2 15.9 16.4 16.9 17.7 18.5 19.1 19.6 20.2 21.1 22.1 23.2 LONG(DEG W) 103.2 104.1 104.9 105.6 106.3 107.1 107.9 108.2 108.4 108.9 109.6 110.4 111.1 STM SPEED (KT) 10 11 9 8 7 6 5 3 3 5 6 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 43 25 15 12 10 8 8 4 3 1 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 9 CX,CY: -5/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 618 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 52.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 6. 5. 3. 1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. 9. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 5. 7. 8. 9. 8. 7. 5. 3. 2. 1. -1. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. 2. 4. 9. 11. 9. 7. 3. 1. -1. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 5. 4. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 8. 14. 21. 28. 39. 42. 37. 31. 20. 12. 3. -7. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 14.4 103.2 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP032018 BUD 06/10/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 20.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.64 13.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 103.6 40.5 to 149.3 0.58 7.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.8 18.9 to 1.4 0.69 12.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 21.0 0.0 to 106.7 0.20 2.9 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 55.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.93 12.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 99.0 -33.0 to 156.2 0.70 8.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.81 10.7 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -3.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.2 to -1.9 0.51 0.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): -38.6 735.9 to -82.5 0.95 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 50% is 6.5 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 81% is 5.3 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 66% is 6.3 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 57% is 7.6 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 37% is 7.1 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 57% is 7.0 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 46% is 6.2 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 50.1% 81.0% 65.6% 56.6% 36.9% 56.9% 46.1% 11.0% Logistic: 58.6% 75.6% 64.5% 54.4% 38.1% 66.4% 24.9% 1.8% Bayesian: 60.0% 86.8% 73.5% 68.5% 50.0% 41.6% 18.3% 0.1% Consensus: 56.2% 81.1% 67.9% 59.8% 41.7% 55.0% 29.8% 4.3% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP032018 BUD 06/10/18 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##