* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BUD EP032018 06/10/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 50 55 61 64 77 83 87 84 75 70 63 55 V (KT) LAND 45 50 55 61 64 77 83 87 84 75 70 63 55 V (KT) LGEM 45 51 56 61 65 73 79 79 75 68 61 53 44 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 12 10 7 8 9 11 5 7 5 4 1 3 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 3 4 4 2 -1 1 3 0 0 -1 -1 0 SHEAR DIR 19 4 28 33 9 73 71 94 42 343 83 74 325 SST (C) 30.7 30.4 30.1 29.8 29.5 28.8 28.1 27.3 26.7 25.8 24.7 23.6 22.4 POT. INT. (KT) 171 169 166 162 159 151 143 134 128 119 108 97 84 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.9 -52.2 -51.5 -51.9 -51.5 -51.5 -51.2 -51.0 -51.2 -51.0 -51.1 -51.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.8 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 7 7 7 7 5 4 4 4 3 3 2 700-500 MB RH 87 85 84 85 85 82 82 78 76 72 74 71 64 MODEL VTX (KT) 19 20 20 21 21 25 25 26 25 21 20 19 16 850 MB ENV VOR -10 -21 -8 9 10 0 21 35 60 52 66 58 32 200 MB DIV 104 111 112 114 117 124 138 107 106 48 55 36 23 700-850 TADV -7 -8 -9 -9 -11 -9 -2 -3 -1 -1 -2 -2 -2 LAND (KM) 482 463 438 406 388 373 360 366 363 364 352 222 132 LAT (DEG N) 13.1 13.7 14.2 14.8 15.3 16.2 16.9 17.6 18.2 18.9 19.8 20.9 21.9 LONG(DEG W) 102.3 103.1 103.9 104.6 105.2 106.3 107.2 107.9 108.3 108.8 109.3 109.9 110.7 STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 9 8 8 6 5 4 4 5 6 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 51 61 47 27 16 11 9 7 5 1 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 8 CX,CY: -6/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 579 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 81.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 29.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 3. 7. 11. 14. 15. 16. 15. 13. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 6. 5. 3. 2. 2. 0. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 7. 7. 9. 8. 2. 1. -0. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 7. 7. 6. 5. 4. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 10. 16. 19. 32. 38. 42. 39. 30. 25. 18. 10. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 13.1 102.3 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP032018 BUD 06/10/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.56 8.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 120.5 40.5 to 149.3 0.73 6.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.3 18.9 to 1.4 0.49 6.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 40.4 0.0 to 106.7 0.38 3.8 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.64 6.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 111.6 -33.0 to 156.2 0.76 6.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.62 5.7 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -2.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.2 2.2 to -1.9 0.25 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): -26.6 735.9 to -82.5 0.93 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 26% is 3.3 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 55% is 3.6 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 41% is 4.0 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 34% is 4.6 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 4.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 50% is 6.2 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 56% is 7.6 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 42% is 7.7 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 25.5% 55.5% 41.2% 34.4% 20.9% 49.8% 56.3% 42.4% Logistic: 11.3% 43.2% 28.8% 21.3% 11.7% 27.6% 39.9% 10.3% Bayesian: 12.8% 59.2% 28.9% 12.2% 9.0% 28.1% 72.8% 24.8% Consensus: 16.5% 52.6% 33.0% 22.6% 13.9% 35.2% 56.3% 25.8% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP032018 BUD 06/10/18 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##