* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BUD EP032018 06/10/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 39 43 49 56 66 80 82 81 77 69 63 56 V (KT) LAND 35 39 43 49 56 66 80 82 81 77 69 63 56 V (KT) LGEM 35 38 41 45 49 60 73 81 82 76 67 58 49 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 16 12 10 11 14 8 14 11 13 9 6 5 4 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 7 5 0 0 -2 -3 0 5 3 0 0 1 SHEAR DIR 6 10 20 20 8 360 77 79 78 97 74 81 97 SST (C) 30.9 30.7 30.4 30.1 29.8 29.1 28.3 27.7 27.2 26.5 25.6 24.6 23.7 POT. INT. (KT) 171 171 169 166 163 154 145 138 133 126 117 106 97 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -52.5 -52.8 -52.1 -51.4 -52.0 -50.9 -51.8 -50.7 -51.7 -50.6 -51.4 -50.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.5 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.6 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 7 7 6 6 5 5 4 5 4 4 700-500 MB RH 89 88 87 86 86 86 83 80 78 73 71 66 61 MODEL VTX (KT) 19 20 20 21 24 25 30 28 28 27 24 21 18 850 MB ENV VOR -6 -12 -24 -8 16 3 24 30 64 57 69 59 55 200 MB DIV 153 131 133 109 109 136 149 113 155 76 37 8 -3 700-850 TADV -7 -9 -8 -7 -7 -8 -3 -5 0 0 -2 -3 0 LAND (KM) 506 489 473 439 409 400 403 415 416 421 431 377 290 LAT (DEG N) 12.6 13.1 13.6 14.2 14.8 15.7 16.4 17.0 17.5 18.1 18.7 19.5 20.3 LONG(DEG W) 101.7 102.5 103.2 103.9 104.7 106.0 107.2 108.0 108.4 108.9 109.4 109.9 110.3 STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 9 9 9 7 6 4 3 4 4 4 4 HEAT CONTENT 42 55 66 49 26 13 9 7 6 3 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 7 CX,CY: -5/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 579 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 70.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -0. 1. 6. 13. 18. 22. 24. 24. 23. 21. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -7. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 6. 8. 14. 13. 12. 11. 6. 3. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 8. 9. 8. 7. 5. 4. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 14. 21. 31. 45. 47. 46. 42. 34. 28. 21. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 12.6 101.7 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP032018 BUD 06/10/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 4.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 132.8 40.5 to 149.3 0.85 5.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.6 18.9 to 1.4 0.36 3.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 47.6 0.0 to 106.7 0.45 3.3 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 2.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 127.0 -33.0 to 156.2 0.85 5.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.81 5.4 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -1.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.4 2.2 to -1.9 0.20 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): -37.8 735.9 to -82.5 0.95 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 21% is 2.8 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 50% is 3.3 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 28% is 2.7 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 2.9 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 28% is 3.5 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 48% is 6.4 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 44% is 8.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 21.2% 50.0% 28.1% 21.5% 0.0% 28.3% 47.6% 44.1% Logistic: 29.6% 71.3% 47.7% 28.4% 16.9% 67.7% 44.3% 24.3% Bayesian: 12.8% 66.0% 29.0% 19.7% 4.0% 22.5% 82.3% 33.8% Consensus: 21.2% 62.5% 34.9% 23.2% 7.0% 39.5% 58.1% 34.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP032018 BUD 06/10/18 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##