* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * THREE EP032017 06/12/17 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 33 35 37 44 47 51 54 56 58 60 62 V (KT) LAND 30 31 33 31 30 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 30 28 27 27 27 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 16 15 15 14 16 16 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 2 1 3 4 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 70 70 69 65 61 74 54 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.0 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.0 29.1 29.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 152 152 152 153 151 152 153 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.2 -52.0 -51.7 -52.0 -52.1 -52.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 8 10 9 8 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 80 78 76 76 75 74 74 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 5 5 5 6 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 37 35 55 76 79 89 88 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 57 61 81 93 91 65 41 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 93 60 26 0 -27 -45 -45 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 15.2 15.5 15.7 15.9 16.0 16.2 16.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 95.1 95.3 95.5 95.8 96.1 96.7 97.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 20 19 13 6 31 32 37 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):335/ 4 CX,CY: -1/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 618 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 61.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 4.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 7. 13. 19. 24. 27. 29. 30. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -3. -5. -7. -8. -8. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 11. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 7. 14. 17. 21. 24. 26. 28. 30. 32. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 15.2 95.1 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP032017 THREE 06/12/17 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 122.1 40.5 to 149.3 0.75 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.3 18.9 to 1.4 0.20 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 17.8 0.0 to 106.7 0.17 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 76.6 -33.0 to 156.2 0.58 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 37.8 to 2.1 999.00 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.2 to -1.9 999.00 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 23.0 735.9 to -82.5 0.87 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Bayesian: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP032017 THREE 06/12/17 06 UTC ## ## ERR=2, BOTH IR FILES BAD OR MISSING