* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BLAS EP032016 07/09/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 70 65 59 51 44 30 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 70 65 59 51 44 30 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 70 63 55 48 42 30 22 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 7 9 11 12 10 18 25 33 34 39 37 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 12 12 10 12 17 15 13 12 6 4 4 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 206 223 221 225 219 217 214 219 245 260 259 N/A N/A SST (C) 24.7 24.2 23.8 23.5 23.4 23.5 24.0 24.4 24.6 24.8 25.2 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 109 104 100 97 96 97 103 107 109 111 115 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -52.2 -52.4 -52.5 -52.2 -52.1 -52.0 -52.1 -52.8 -52.9 -53.0 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.2 -0.2 -0.1 -0.2 0.0 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 2 2 2 2 3 3 3 4 4 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 59 57 54 47 43 38 32 31 26 28 29 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 26 27 25 23 21 17 12 9 6 6 3 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 20 27 8 2 -5 -9 -13 2 9 21 11 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 58 54 43 40 39 10 -1 0 -3 -17 -31 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 15 24 17 13 11 7 6 0 3 -6 -2 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1888 1902 1921 1956 1958 2023 1858 1628 1407 1196 995 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 18.8 19.5 20.2 20.8 21.3 21.8 21.8 21.5 21.1 20.6 20.1 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 130.7 131.4 132.0 132.7 133.4 135.0 137.1 139.3 141.4 143.4 145.3 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 9 9 8 8 10 10 10 10 9 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 8 CX,CY: -5/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 85 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 629 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 91.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -6. -9. -14. -18. -19. -21. -21. -21. -21. -23. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -5. -9. -14. -19. -20. -22. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -8. -6. -5. -4. -3. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. PERSISTENCE -4. -6. -7. -7. -6. -5. -4. -2. -1. 0. 1. 3. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -5. -11. -18. -23. -27. -28. -30. -28. -26. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -5. -11. -19. -26. -40. -53. -63. -71. -77. -84. -85. -86. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 70. LAT, LON: 18.8 130.7 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP032016 BLAS 07/09/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -15.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.12 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 31.3 40.3 to 144.5 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 0.0 to 75.9 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.4 38.9 to 2.1 0.86 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.1 18.9 to 1.4 0.50 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 70.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.84 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 46.8 -11.0 to 135.3 0.40 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 507.0 638.0 to -68.2 0.19 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.1 to -1.7 0.41 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 1.5 81.4 to 0.0 0.98 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.9 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 5.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP032016 BLAS 07/09/16 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##