* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP992017 09/27/17 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 28 31 36 42 46 47 47 47 48 47 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 28 26 27 27 27 31 30 31 31 31 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 26 24 26 26 27 30 32 34 35 36 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 18 23 27 24 17 23 21 17 16 14 15 20 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 2 0 0 0 -4 -5 -4 -6 -6 -3 -7 -4 SHEAR DIR 79 68 74 81 79 78 98 105 106 131 132 184 184 SST (C) 30.8 30.7 30.7 30.6 30.5 30.3 30.4 30.2 29.8 29.8 30.0 29.1 27.9 POT. INT. (KT) 169 168 169 169 168 166 168 166 163 163 165 155 142 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -52.3 -52.7 -52.3 -51.9 -52.7 -52.1 -52.8 -52.2 -52.9 -52.5 -53.1 -52.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 10 8 7 9 10 7 9 6 9 6 8 5 6 700-500 MB RH 76 77 76 75 76 80 75 77 73 75 70 67 59 MODEL VTX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 79 78 74 67 65 63 65 81 61 61 26 33 45 200 MB DIV 58 82 87 91 75 38 37 48 50 43 53 44 20 700-850 TADV 0 -2 -2 -1 0 0 1 3 -1 1 -4 7 3 LAND (KM) 162 126 81 35 -27 -82 -67 -12 22 17 53 174 313 LAT (DEG N) 14.5 14.7 15.1 15.5 16.0 16.6 16.8 16.9 17.4 18.1 19.0 19.7 20.2 LONG(DEG W) 95.2 95.6 95.7 95.8 96.1 97.1 98.3 99.8 101.5 103.3 105.3 107.2 108.7 STM SPEED (KT) 5 4 4 5 6 6 7 8 9 10 10 9 7 HEAT CONTENT 25 27 28 28 47 51 54 49 11 14 29 35 13 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 497 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 67.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 4.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -2. -1. 4. 13. 22. 30. 34. 36. 37. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -6. -10. -13. -15. -16. -16. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 6. 6. 5. 4. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 6. 11. 17. 21. 23. 22. 22. 23. 22. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 14.5 95.2 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP992017 INVEST 09/27/17 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 143.8 40.5 to 149.3 0.95 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 22.0 18.9 to 1.4 0.00 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 31.0 0.0 to 106.7 0.29 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 78.6 -33.0 to 156.2 0.59 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 37.8 to 2.1 999.00 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.2 to -1.9 999.00 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 55.0 735.9 to -82.5 0.83 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Bayesian: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP992017 INVEST 09/27/17 00 UTC ## ##