* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP992016 10/11/16 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 33 36 44 53 59 58 56 54 51 50 V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 33 36 44 53 59 58 56 54 51 50 V (KT) LGEM 25 27 29 30 32 35 41 46 48 48 45 42 40 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 12 12 10 7 8 6 6 8 10 15 14 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 0 0 0 1 0 -1 0 0 -1 -3 -4 -1 SHEAR DIR 97 91 88 86 91 75 140 188 234 252 271 277 258 SST (C) 28.8 28.9 29.1 29.3 29.2 29.2 29.2 28.8 28.7 27.8 26.9 27.5 27.7 POT. INT. (KT) 153 155 158 160 159 159 159 154 153 144 134 140 142 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.5 -52.3 -52.3 -52.6 -52.5 -52.7 -52.7 -52.8 -53.0 -53.1 -53.2 -53.2 200 MB VXT (C) -0.5 -0.5 -0.5 -0.4 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.0 -0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 7 7 8 9 8 7 6 6 6 6 6 700-500 MB RH 72 71 71 70 69 66 69 66 61 59 57 53 51 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 7 8 7 6 6 7 6 6 6 5 5 850 MB ENV VOR -13 -19 -20 -26 -32 -9 8 1 -12 -17 -20 -40 -30 200 MB DIV 5 2 4 24 36 33 24 -3 28 28 30 11 -6 700-850 TADV 5 3 0 0 -1 3 8 10 10 11 10 4 0 LAND (KM) 591 591 585 613 623 654 735 913 990 1167 1351 1567 1809 LAT (DEG N) 10.5 10.7 11.1 11.5 12.1 13.2 14.2 14.9 15.4 15.6 15.7 15.6 15.2 LONG(DEG W) 97.4 98.6 100.0 101.6 103.2 106.4 109.3 112.2 115.1 118.0 120.9 123.7 126.3 STM SPEED (KT) 11 13 15 16 17 16 15 14 14 14 13 13 13 HEAT CONTENT 12 11 13 36 34 33 27 30 26 35 2 12 20 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 651 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 61.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 3.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 6. 13. 21. 26. 29. 31. 32. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 4. 4. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 8. 7. 5. 3. 1. -1. -3. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 11. 19. 28. 34. 33. 31. 29. 26. 25. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 10.5 97.4 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP992016 INVEST 10/11/16 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.45 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 132.0 40.3 to 144.5 0.88 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 21.2 0.0 to 75.9 0.28 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 38.9 to 2.1 999.00 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.9 18.9 to 1.4 0.51 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 14.2 -11.0 to 135.3 0.17 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 54.0 638.0 to -68.2 0.83 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.1 to -1.7 999.00 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Bayesian: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP992016 INVEST 10/11/16 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##