* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP932016 09/17/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 31 34 42 48 49 46 39 32 25 19 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 31 34 42 48 49 46 39 32 25 19 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 27 28 31 33 34 31 28 25 22 19 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 16 14 12 9 9 7 8 13 11 17 21 29 30 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -6 -7 -6 -3 -6 -3 -4 -4 -3 -4 -4 -1 SHEAR DIR 70 79 85 80 70 120 164 172 188 192 220 227 237 SST (C) 29.1 29.0 28.7 28.6 28.7 28.2 27.1 25.8 24.4 23.2 22.0 21.3 21.0 POT. INT. (KT) 156 156 153 151 153 148 136 122 106 94 80 72 68 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.4 -52.1 -52.2 -52.3 -51.9 -52.4 -52.2 -52.5 -52.8 -53.1 -53.1 -53.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.7 1.0 1.0 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 8 8 8 6 4 3 2 2 1 2 1 700-500 MB RH 79 77 75 74 75 74 65 57 48 39 35 32 27 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 12 13 12 12 13 14 13 11 8 5 4 4 850 MB ENV VOR 17 22 17 15 9 23 6 22 2 -4 -12 1 9 200 MB DIV 80 73 61 45 42 66 26 2 6 0 10 3 -5 700-850 TADV -2 -2 -2 -2 0 3 0 6 4 1 0 -15 -18 LAND (KM) 633 640 647 674 718 634 650 620 592 482 394 344 286 LAT (DEG N) 13.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 106.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 12 12 12 13 14 12 10 9 9 7 4 3 HEAT CONTENT 25 25 18 15 18 19 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 7 CX,CY: -5/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 612 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 27.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 38.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 0.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 7. 14. 20. 24. 26. 26. 26. 23. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 1. -1. -5. -8. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 2. 1. -2. -6. -9. -9. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 6. 9. 17. 23. 24. 21. 14. 7. 0. -6. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 13.6 106.7 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP932016 INVEST 09/17/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.36 2.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 128.6 40.3 to 144.5 0.85 3.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 20.2 0.0 to 75.9 0.27 1.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 27.3 38.9 to 2.1 0.32 1.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.0 18.9 to 1.4 0.39 1.8 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 60.2 -11.0 to 135.3 0.49 1.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 44.4 638.0 to -68.2 0.84 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.1 2.1 to -1.7 0.25 -0.2 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 0.6 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.3 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.4 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 17.4% 12.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.0% 2.8% 2.6% 0.3% 0.1% 2.9% 1.2% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.9% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.4% Consensus: 0.3% 7.0% 5.1% 0.1% 0.0% 1.0% 0.5% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP932016 INVEST 09/17/16 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##