* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP932016 09/16/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 24 28 32 40 48 54 62 65 63 60 57 V (KT) LAND 20 22 24 28 32 40 48 54 62 65 63 60 57 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 21 22 22 25 28 31 36 41 43 43 42 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 17 15 10 10 11 13 12 13 13 16 14 7 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 -1 -1 -1 -4 -4 -3 -3 -5 -3 -3 -2 SHEAR DIR 81 82 66 53 60 79 74 72 75 69 68 91 151 SST (C) 28.6 28.4 28.4 28.4 28.4 28.4 28.5 28.8 28.7 28.6 27.9 26.5 24.3 POT. INT. (KT) 149 148 148 147 146 145 146 152 152 152 145 130 107 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -53.0 -53.1 -53.0 -52.7 -53.1 -52.4 -52.7 -52.3 -52.7 -52.3 -52.7 -52.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.5 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 6 6 6 7 7 8 8 7 5 5 700-500 MB RH 72 73 74 74 73 73 71 74 76 76 70 62 55 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 7 8 9 9 10 10 9 11 11 9 8 7 850 MB ENV VOR 28 29 33 38 46 46 37 9 0 1 7 -6 -2 200 MB DIV 42 60 65 60 70 83 92 50 61 27 32 3 4 700-850 TADV -3 -3 -4 -5 -4 -1 -3 -1 -1 -3 -3 0 0 LAND (KM) 770 825 878 933 985 1027 1015 922 791 711 476 338 184 LAT (DEG N) 11.7 11.6 11.5 11.4 11.3 11.3 11.6 12.6 14.4 16.6 19.3 22.0 24.5 LONG(DEG W) 105.8 106.7 107.5 108.3 109.0 109.7 110.0 110.0 110.3 111.2 112.5 113.6 114.1 STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 8 7 5 2 3 8 11 14 15 14 12 HEAT CONTENT 19 28 34 34 27 19 16 13 15 21 14 2 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):260/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 596 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 53.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 2.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 7. 14. 22. 28. 31. 34. 35. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 11. 13. 15. 15. 14. 12. 10. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 4. 4. 2. 0. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 8. 12. 20. 28. 34. 42. 45. 43. 40. 37. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 11.7 105.8 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP932016 INVEST 09/16/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.36 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 127.7 40.3 to 144.5 0.84 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 28.4 0.0 to 75.9 0.37 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.2 38.9 to 2.1 0.40 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.9 18.9 to 1.4 0.34 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 59.4 -11.0 to 135.3 0.48 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 36.2 638.0 to -68.2 0.85 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.1 to -1.7 0.65 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.9% 6.3% 4.0% 1.0% 0.4% 4.3% 2.7% Bayesian: 0.0% 6.9% 2.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 1.2% Consensus: 0.3% 4.4% 2.1% 0.4% 0.2% 1.5% 1.3% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP932016 INVEST 09/16/16 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##