* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP922017 10/26/17 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 29 34 39 44 56 62 59 52 47 45 44 42 V (KT) LAND 25 29 34 39 44 56 62 59 52 42 34 29 27 V (KT) LGEM 25 27 29 31 34 38 41 40 35 30 27 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 3 6 6 3 10 10 17 16 16 13 8 11 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 5 5 5 6 3 0 4 5 0 0 -3 -2 SHEAR DIR 349 53 94 88 94 98 160 183 200 204 226 218 238 SST (C) 29.1 29.2 29.2 29.3 29.4 28.9 28.5 28.5 28.4 28.4 28.6 28.8 29.1 POT. INT. (KT) 153 155 155 157 159 154 148 145 145 145 147 150 154 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.5 -53.1 -53.6 -53.0 -53.5 -53.3 -53.6 -53.9 -54.0 -54.1 -54.1 -54.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 2 2 4 4 4 3 3 2 3 3 5 700-500 MB RH 84 85 84 82 78 77 76 77 75 73 69 68 66 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 12 13 14 14 16 16 12 7 5 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 75 79 69 72 72 54 26 5 -5 -15 -26 -10 -10 200 MB DIV 120 137 145 135 124 84 98 91 71 40 17 44 47 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 1 0 -2 -3 -2 -4 2 3 6 LAND (KM) 214 252 279 273 258 172 136 126 71 -4 -64 -104 -169 LAT (DEG N) 10.6 10.6 10.6 10.8 11.3 12.7 13.9 14.4 14.8 15.1 15.3 15.8 16.8 LONG(DEG W) 88.1 88.6 89.2 89.8 90.6 92.2 93.4 93.8 93.5 92.8 92.2 92.2 92.4 STM SPEED (KT) 4 5 6 8 10 10 6 2 4 4 2 4 5 HEAT CONTENT 6 6 6 7 10 14 7 3 11 4 31 35 37 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 658 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 77.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 19.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -0. 1. 6. 14. 21. 27. 30. 32. 33. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 3. 1. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 6. 5. 4. 2. 0. -2. -3. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -6. -5. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 3. 4. 6. 9. 10. 4. -2. -5. -5. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 7. 6. 5. 4. 3. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 9. 14. 19. 31. 37. 34. 27. 22. 20. 19. 17. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 10.6 88.1 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP922017 INVEST 10/26/17 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 130.7 40.5 to 149.3 0.83 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.6 18.9 to 1.4 0.76 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 7.0 0.0 to 106.7 0.07 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 132.2 -33.0 to 156.2 0.87 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 37.8 to 2.1 999.00 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.2 to -1.9 999.00 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 16.6 735.9 to -82.5 0.88 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Bayesian: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP922017 INVEST 10/26/17 18 UTC ## ##