* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * RAMON EP192017 10/05/17 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 29 29 30 33 34 35 36 37 36 37 40 43 V (KT) LAND 30 29 29 30 33 34 35 36 37 36 37 40 43 V (KT) LGEM 30 27 25 24 23 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 38 39 40 36 31 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 1 3 6 8 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 77 72 67 61 70 66 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.7 29.6 29.4 29.3 29.0 28.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 162 162 160 159 156 148 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -53.0 -53.3 -52.7 -52.3 -52.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 6 6 8 8 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 83 81 79 74 72 71 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 9 11 13 15 17 17 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 98 81 56 68 80 78 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 80 61 80 57 31 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 11 0 -2 -6 1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 261 311 349 392 454 567 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 14.8 14.9 15.0 15.2 15.4 15.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 101.2 102.5 103.8 105.1 106.4 108.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 11 13 13 13 12 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 38 40 36 30 25 15 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 556 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 57.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -0. 1. 7. 13. 20. 25. 28. 30. 31. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -3. -6. -11. -17. -25. -31. -37. -40. -40. -38. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -0. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 11. 12. 13. 13. 13. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. -3. -2. 0. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 4. 8. 9. 9. 10. 10. 9. 9. 8. 7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -0. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 6. 7. 10. 13. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 14.8 101.2 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP192017 RAMON 10/05/17 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.18 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 129.8 40.5 to 149.3 0.82 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 36.8 18.9 to 1.4 0.00 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 33.8 0.0 to 106.7 0.32 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 61.8 -33.0 to 156.2 0.50 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 37.8 to 2.1 999.00 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.2 to -1.9 0.41 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 43.8 735.9 to -82.5 0.85 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Bayesian: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP192017 RAMON 10/05/17 00 UTC ##