* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * PILAR EP182017 09/25/17 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 36 37 38 39 40 39 34 27 20 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 35 36 37 38 39 40 39 34 27 20 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 35 35 36 36 37 35 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 13 16 22 28 40 45 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -2 -3 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 180 205 200 196 194 199 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 30.0 29.9 29.9 29.8 29.8 29.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 164 162 161 160 160 161 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -52.0 -52.0 -51.8 -51.9 -52.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 8 6 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 46 44 42 39 38 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 5 5 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 78 81 68 82 98 79 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 40 31 28 29 33 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -3 -3 -2 0 0 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 88 71 45 30 15 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 22.0 22.5 22.9 23.3 23.6 24.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 106.5 106.6 106.7 106.9 107.0 107.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 5 4 4 4 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 28 29 27 24 13 14 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):340/ 8 CX,CY: -2/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 691 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 76.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 2.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. 1. 2. 7. 13. 19. 24. 26. 27. 28. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 1. -2. -7. -16. -25. -33. -38. -39. -39. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -1. -0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. -1. -8. -15. -21. -23. -24. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 22.0 106.5 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP182017 PILAR 09/25/17 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 126.4 40.5 to 149.3 0.79 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 24.0 18.9 to 1.4 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 24.2 0.0 to 106.7 0.23 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 32.2 -33.0 to 156.2 0.34 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.57 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 44.0 62.3 to 0.0 0.29 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.3 2.2 to -1.9 0.84 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 245.4 735.9 to -82.5 0.60 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.2 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 9.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP182017 PILAR 09/25/17 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##