* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * PILAR EP182017 09/25/17 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 36 37 38 39 40 39 35 28 21 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 35 36 37 38 39 40 39 35 28 21 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 35 34 34 34 34 34 31 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 13 13 16 22 27 44 44 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -3 -3 -3 0 0 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 169 189 206 201 196 196 196 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 30.1 30.0 30.0 29.9 29.8 29.9 30.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 165 163 162 161 160 161 162 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.3 -51.7 -52.0 -51.9 -51.6 -52.1 -52.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 7 6 6 8 5 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 50 48 45 42 40 36 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 4 5 4 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 77 81 80 73 81 95 72 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 37 36 25 24 31 36 50 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -1 -2 -3 -3 1 2 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 61 65 37 30 22 7 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 21.7 22.2 22.7 23.0 23.2 23.8 24.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 106.2 106.3 106.4 106.6 106.7 107.1 107.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 5 4 3 3 3 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 26 27 28 21 21 10 14 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):350/ 8 CX,CY: 0/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 549 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 7.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. 0. 2. 7. 13. 19. 24. 26. 27. 28. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. -0. -7. -15. -24. -32. -36. -37. -37. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 3. 3. 4. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. -0. -7. -14. -20. -21. -22. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 21.7 106.2 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP182017 PILAR 09/25/17 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 1.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 127.1 40.5 to 149.3 0.80 3.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.2 18.9 to 1.4 0.04 0.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 24.6 0.0 to 106.7 0.23 1.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 1.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 30.6 -33.0 to 156.2 0.34 1.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.74 2.8 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 26.8 62.3 to 0.0 0.57 -0.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.2 to -1.9 0.68 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 227.4 735.9 to -82.5 0.62 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.3 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.2 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.1 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.0 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.6 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 10.1% 17.8% 11.0% 10.1% 6.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 3.3% 1.6% 0.7% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.5% 6.5% 3.9% 3.5% 2.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP182017 PILAR 09/25/17 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##