* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * PILAR EP182017 09/24/17 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 35 35 36 37 39 40 39 36 32 29 30 30 V (KT) LAND 35 35 35 36 37 39 32 29 28 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 35 34 34 34 34 35 30 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 8 9 9 8 13 27 38 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -3 -3 -4 -4 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 105 123 134 177 183 171 182 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 30.3 30.3 30.3 30.3 30.2 30.1 29.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 166 165 165 165 164 163 161 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -51.4 -51.7 -52.0 -51.9 -51.8 -52.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 10 8 7 8 7 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 56 52 50 47 45 43 39 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 78 88 89 84 70 87 81 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 30 47 41 18 16 50 58 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -2 0 0 0 0 0 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 0 30 38 31 8 7 -22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 20.4 20.8 21.1 21.5 21.8 22.5 23.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 105.7 105.8 105.8 105.8 105.7 105.8 106.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 6 4 3 4 3 4 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 5 20 23 24 16 10 58 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):350/ 7 CX,CY: 0/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 410 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 85.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 10.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. 0. 1. 6. 13. 19. 24. 27. 28. 29. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. -0. -4. -9. -13. -16. -16. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -0. -0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 4. 1. -3. -6. -5. -5. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 20.4 105.7 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP182017 PILAR 09/24/17 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 2.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 130.2 40.5 to 149.3 0.82 4.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.1 18.9 to 1.4 0.56 3.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 17.6 0.0 to 106.7 0.16 0.9 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 1.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 30.4 -33.0 to 156.2 0.34 1.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.75 3.7 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -1.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.2 to -1.9 0.45 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 218.8 735.9 to -82.5 0.63 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.4 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 25% is 1.6 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.6 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.8 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.5 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.0 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 11.0% 24.7% 16.8% 13.3% 12.8% 16.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 7.9% 18.9% 11.7% 8.1% 5.2% 5.8% 0.9% 1.9% Bayesian: 0.0% 1.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 6.3% 14.9% 9.6% 7.2% 6.0% 7.3% 0.3% 0.6% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP182017 PILAR 09/24/17 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##