* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * PILAR EP182017 09/24/17 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 42 43 42 43 45 45 41 33 24 16 DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 40 42 43 42 43 45 45 41 32 29 28 DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 40 43 46 47 48 50 51 48 35 31 28 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 15 11 9 10 9 14 31 37 46 45 47 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -1 -1 -1 -2 -3 0 1 0 -1 2 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 85 85 93 97 143 179 183 192 187 201 207 N/A N/A SST (C) 30.1 30.2 30.2 30.3 30.3 30.2 30.1 29.9 29.9 30.0 30.6 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 164 165 165 166 165 164 163 161 161 163 169 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -52.1 -52.0 -51.6 -51.9 -52.2 -52.0 -52.2 -52.2 -52.6 -52.7 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 8 10 8 8 7 7 7 7 6 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 64 61 58 53 51 45 42 39 41 40 37 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 5 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 78 77 70 81 96 70 94 85 88 50 56 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 44 18 15 24 20 17 42 52 43 24 16 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -1 -4 -1 0 1 0 0 3 6 7 9 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 70 47 25 4 20 32 30 0 -22 -37 -52 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 19.0 19.5 20.0 20.5 20.9 21.6 22.5 23.2 23.8 24.4 25.3 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 105.5 105.6 105.7 105.7 105.7 105.9 106.1 106.4 106.7 107.1 107.7 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 3 5 5 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 29 26 6 8 23 27 24 51 49 45 48 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):335/ 4 CX,CY: -1/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 446 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 67.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 9.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 7. 12. 17. 21. 23. 24. 25. 26. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 1. -5. -14. -24. -33. -33. -34. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 700-500 MB RH 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 2. 3. 5. 5. 1. -7. -16. -24. -26. -28. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 19.0 105.5 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP182017 PILAR 09/24/17 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 4.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 125.0 40.5 to 149.3 0.78 4.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.0 18.9 to 1.4 0.45 3.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 18.4 0.0 to 106.7 0.17 1.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 40.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.50 2.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 24.2 -33.0 to 156.2 0.30 1.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.55 2.8 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -1.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.2 to -1.9 0.44 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 220.0 735.9 to -82.5 0.63 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.9 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 1.6 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.7 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.0 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.5 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 22% is 2.7 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.3 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 14.5% 24.3% 17.9% 15.1% 12.8% 21.6% 16.8% 0.0% Logistic: 6.8% 18.0% 12.3% 11.3% 8.6% 13.3% 4.8% 1.0% Bayesian: 0.2% 8.1% 1.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% Consensus: 7.1% 16.8% 10.4% 8.9% 7.1% 11.9% 7.2% 0.3% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP182017 PILAR 09/24/17 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##