* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * EIGHTEEN EP182017 09/24/17 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 38 40 41 41 44 49 47 44 33 24 20 DIS V (KT) LAND 35 38 40 41 41 44 49 47 44 33 24 20 DIS V (KT) LGEM 35 39 41 43 44 46 47 47 45 39 32 26 22 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 17 16 15 15 15 7 17 31 39 43 39 45 38 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -3 -1 -1 -1 -1 -2 0 1 0 3 -1 -3 SHEAR DIR 76 81 79 80 94 151 180 191 182 193 202 217 225 SST (C) 29.9 30.0 30.1 30.2 30.2 30.2 30.1 29.9 29.7 29.8 30.3 30.6 30.2 POT. INT. (KT) 161 162 163 164 165 165 164 161 159 161 166 170 166 200 MB T (C) -51.5 -51.9 -52.3 -52.1 -51.7 -52.3 -51.9 -52.3 -52.0 -52.5 -52.7 -52.9 -52.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 10 8 7 8 9 6 9 6 7 5 7 4 7 700-500 MB RH 70 67 64 60 57 51 47 42 40 38 35 31 30 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 5 5 4 3 4 6 6 9 8 7 8 6 850 MB ENV VOR 80 80 76 70 82 80 75 87 78 67 50 47 42 200 MB DIV 64 43 22 21 24 3 19 36 33 15 22 0 -23 700-850 TADV -3 -2 -2 -2 1 0 2 1 0 4 2 9 0 LAND (KM) 98 76 64 50 37 45 61 75 82 90 83 44 50 LAT (DEG N) 18.5 18.8 19.1 19.5 19.8 20.7 21.7 22.4 23.0 23.6 24.4 25.4 26.6 LONG(DEG W) 105.3 105.4 105.5 105.6 105.7 106.0 106.2 106.6 107.3 108.0 108.7 109.5 110.3 STM SPEED (KT) 3 3 4 4 4 5 5 4 4 5 6 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 30 30 29 27 16 25 28 28 25 26 27 30 34 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 4 CX,CY: -1/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 428 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 90.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 10.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. 0. 2. 6. 13. 19. 24. 26. 28. 29. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. -3. -11. -21. -28. -33. -35. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 3. 1. 0. 1. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 6. 6. 9. 14. 12. 9. -2. -11. -15. -22. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 18.5 105.3 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP182017 EIGHTEEN 09/24/17 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 3.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 127.9 40.5 to 149.3 0.80 3.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.6 18.9 to 1.4 0.19 1.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 26.4 0.0 to 106.7 0.25 1.3 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 1.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 34.8 -33.0 to 156.2 0.36 1.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.66 3.1 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -1.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.2 to -1.9 0.40 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 149.2 735.9 to -82.5 0.72 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.7 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 1.4 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.5 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.6 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.1 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.4 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.3 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 13.1% 22.0% 15.2% 12.3% 10.8% 19.2% 17.0% 0.0% Logistic: 5.5% 16.6% 8.7% 5.8% 3.9% 14.8% 16.3% 6.9% Bayesian: 0.3% 14.7% 2.4% 0.4% 0.3% 1.1% 0.9% 0.0% Consensus: 6.3% 17.8% 8.8% 6.2% 5.0% 11.7% 11.4% 2.3% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP182017 EIGHTEEN 09/24/17 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##