* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * EIGHTEEN EP182017 09/23/17 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 32 31 32 37 40 42 41 38 34 34 31 V (KT) LAND 30 32 32 31 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 30 32 33 33 29 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 17 18 14 15 11 9 10 14 22 26 34 34 45 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 -4 0 -1 -4 -2 0 -4 0 -5 2 -5 SHEAR DIR 78 77 82 64 75 97 142 151 157 168 196 207 208 SST (C) 29.8 29.9 30.0 30.0 30.0 29.9 29.8 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.8 29.7 POT. INT. (KT) 160 161 163 163 163 162 160 158 160 160 161 162 161 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -51.6 -51.8 -52.2 -51.9 -52.0 -52.1 -52.0 -52.2 -52.1 -52.2 -52.2 -52.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 9 10 8 7 9 9 9 10 10 9 9 9 9 700-500 MB RH 72 70 68 67 65 65 60 59 55 56 57 59 57 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 7 5 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 70 80 89 83 78 96 75 91 65 88 74 62 38 200 MB DIV 36 62 50 36 8 4 2 34 58 77 62 65 30 700-850 TADV -4 -4 -1 -2 -1 1 0 0 0 2 5 8 8 LAND (KM) 122 98 54 4 -63 -166 -251 -296 -279 -289 -275 -319 -371 LAT (DEG N) 18.2 18.5 18.8 19.1 19.6 20.2 20.7 21.0 21.8 22.7 23.8 25.1 26.4 LONG(DEG W) 105.2 105.3 105.0 104.6 104.2 103.3 102.6 102.3 102.6 102.8 103.4 104.0 104.6 STM SPEED (KT) 4 3 4 5 5 5 3 2 5 5 7 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 30 30 29 7 53 55 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 4 CX,CY: -2/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 439 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 86.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 4.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -0. 1. 6. 13. 20. 26. 29. 31. 32. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 1. -3. -8. -14. -17. -21. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. -4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 2. 1. 2. 7. 10. 12. 11. 8. 4. 4. 1. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 18.2 105.2 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP182017 EIGHTEEN 09/23/17 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 2.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 131.9 40.5 to 149.3 0.84 3.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.0 18.9 to 1.4 0.22 1.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 29.8 0.0 to 106.7 0.28 1.3 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 38.4 -33.0 to 156.2 0.38 1.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.60 2.5 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -1.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.2 to -1.9 0.37 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 93.6 735.9 to -82.5 0.78 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.1 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 1.2 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.3 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.4 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.2 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.1 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 8.2% 18.8% 13.1% 10.4% 0.0% 17.5% 15.6% 11.2% Logistic: 4.0% 20.3% 9.2% 5.1% 3.1% 21.8% 23.4% 44.6% Bayesian: 0.2% 13.7% 2.4% 0.5% 0.1% 2.7% 999.0% 999.0% Consensus: 4.1% 17.6% 8.2% 5.3% 1.1% 14.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP182017 EIGHTEEN 09/23/17 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##