* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * OTIS EP152017 09/18/17 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 47 38 30 24 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 60 47 38 30 24 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 60 47 38 32 27 21 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 9 5 9 9 8 11 12 12 2 3 7 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 3 5 7 6 1 5 6 6 1 -8 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 245 219 182 169 170 140 128 144 203 163 235 N/A N/A SST (C) 25.9 25.7 25.6 25.6 25.6 25.8 26.3 26.8 27.2 27.5 28.0 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 120 117 115 115 116 120 125 130 135 139 145 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.3 -52.0 -52.3 -52.6 -52.6 -53.2 -53.3 -53.6 -53.7 -54.4 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 2 2 2 2 2 2 3 4 4 5 6 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 44 46 47 48 48 49 53 52 51 53 56 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 18 16 15 13 12 10 8 7 6 6 5 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 4 2 3 9 1 1 -7 2 12 16 10 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 50 36 49 48 39 44 28 11 0 21 40 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 3 1 0 0 0 0 -4 -3 -1 -1 -2 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1605 1603 1601 1625 1650 1759 1919 2082 2233 2233 2098 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 18.9 19.1 19.3 19.3 19.2 18.7 17.7 16.8 16.2 15.3 14.1 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 127.4 127.6 127.7 128.0 128.2 129.1 130.2 131.4 132.7 134.2 135.9 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 4 2 2 2 4 6 7 7 8 9 11 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 6 7 9 17 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):350/ 6 CX,CY: 0/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 100 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 522 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 40.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -4. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -5. -5. -5. PERSISTENCE -10. -15. -18. -19. -17. -15. -11. -7. -4. -2. 3. 7. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. -10. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -3. -6. -9. -12. -13. -15. -14. -15. -14. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -13. -22. -30. -36. -43. -48. -50. -48. -43. -42. -38. -36. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 18.9 127.4 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP152017 OTIS 09/18/17 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -40.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.00 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 56.7 40.5 to 149.3 0.15 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.2 18.9 to 1.4 0.61 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 0.0 to 106.7 0.00 0.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 60.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.97 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 44.4 -33.0 to 156.2 0.41 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.64 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 62.9 62.3 to 0.0 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.2 to -1.9 0.61 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 467.0 735.9 to -82.5 0.33 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP152017 OTIS 09/18/17 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##