* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * OTIS EP152017 09/18/17 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 100 107 106 100 91 70 53 37 27 21 17 DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 100 107 106 100 91 70 53 37 27 21 17 DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 100 106 101 91 81 62 49 38 31 26 22 19 17 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 3 6 6 4 5 10 13 13 19 11 5 6 6 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 0 1 5 7 3 5 6 7 2 0 -3 SHEAR DIR 254 267 264 233 194 146 144 120 144 188 201 262 228 SST (C) 26.7 26.4 26.1 25.9 25.7 25.6 25.7 25.9 26.4 26.9 27.3 27.5 27.8 POT. INT. (KT) 129 125 122 119 116 116 118 121 127 132 136 138 141 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -52.1 -52.4 -52.4 -52.0 -52.4 -52.5 -53.1 -53.1 -53.6 -53.6 -54.2 -54.2 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 2 2 2 2 2 3 3 4 5 6 6 700-500 MB RH 48 48 47 49 51 54 54 54 54 52 50 53 56 MODEL VTX (KT) 19 17 17 17 15 12 10 8 7 6 5 4 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -6 16 2 7 6 -4 -3 -11 -7 2 26 37 36 200 MB DIV 35 53 42 36 52 62 62 22 1 10 16 33 40 700-850 TADV 1 4 3 1 0 0 0 -1 -1 -2 -1 -3 -1 LAND (KM) 1687 1653 1619 1606 1593 1634 1713 1846 2012 2180 2191 2063 1954 LAT (DEG N) 17.6 18.1 18.6 19.0 19.3 19.3 19.0 18.4 17.7 17.1 16.5 15.8 15.0 LONG(DEG W) 127.2 127.3 127.3 127.5 127.6 128.1 128.8 129.9 131.3 132.8 134.3 135.7 137.0 STM SPEED (KT) 6 5 5 4 2 3 5 6 8 8 7 8 7 HEAT CONTENT 2 8 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 5 6 15 19 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):355/ 6 CX,CY: 0/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 501 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 87.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -2. -4. -7. -11. -19. -26. -32. -37. -40. -42. -42. -42. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 6. 6. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -7. -8. PERSISTENCE 10. 14. 15. 13. 8. 3. -1. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -9. -10. -10. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -4. -8. -11. -15. -16. -17. -18. -18. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 7. 6. 0. -9. -30. -47. -63. -73. -79. -83. -88. -89. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 100. LAT, LON: 17.6 127.2 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP152017 OTIS 09/18/17 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 40.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.94 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 22.4 40.5 to 149.3 0.00 0.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.2 18.9 to 1.4 0.79 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 2.2 0.0 to 106.7 0.02 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 100.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.43 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 43.6 -33.0 to 156.2 0.40 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.82 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 28.8 62.3 to 0.0 0.54 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.7 2.2 to -1.9 0.70 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 715.2 735.9 to -82.5 0.03 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 49% is 6.4 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 49.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 9.2% 1.3% 1.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 999.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 999.0% 0.4% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP152017 OTIS 09/18/17 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##