* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * OTIS EP152017 09/17/17 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 70 76 79 79 76 66 56 43 35 30 26 23 22 V (KT) LAND 70 76 79 79 76 66 56 43 35 30 26 23 22 V (KT) LGEM 70 77 79 76 71 58 46 36 30 25 21 19 18 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 4 5 5 3 9 11 14 16 14 4 4 1 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 0 0 -1 2 9 2 2 4 4 2 -2 -1 SHEAR DIR 215 213 234 240 194 141 135 127 127 162 211 289 243 SST (C) 27.1 26.9 26.6 26.4 26.1 25.8 25.8 25.9 26.2 26.6 27.1 27.4 27.6 POT. INT. (KT) 132 130 127 125 121 118 119 120 124 129 135 138 139 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.2 -52.4 -52.6 -52.6 -52.2 -53.0 -53.2 -53.5 -53.5 -53.9 -53.9 -54.4 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 3 2 2 2 2 2 3 4 4 5 5 700-500 MB RH 50 49 51 49 51 54 53 53 52 52 50 51 53 MODEL VTX (KT) 15 17 15 16 15 13 11 7 7 6 5 5 4 850 MB ENV VOR -9 -5 8 2 4 5 -14 -15 -19 -8 6 27 26 200 MB DIV 19 41 59 40 26 53 47 44 3 15 18 25 21 700-850 TADV 0 1 2 0 0 0 0 0 -1 -1 -1 -2 -1 LAND (KM) 1758 1730 1703 1672 1642 1639 1719 1821 1948 2100 2216 2045 1896 LAT (DEG N) 16.8 17.2 17.6 18.1 18.5 19.0 18.8 18.4 17.9 17.4 16.8 16.1 15.5 LONG(DEG W) 127.3 127.4 127.4 127.5 127.5 127.9 128.7 129.6 130.7 132.1 134.0 135.8 137.4 STM SPEED (KT) 4 4 5 5 4 3 5 5 6 8 10 9 8 HEAT CONTENT 4 3 2 7 1 0 0 0 0 4 6 15 18 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 4 CX,CY: 0/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 530 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 93.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -6. -9. -11. -12. -13. -13. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 5. 4. 4. 4. 5. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -6. -8. PERSISTENCE 6. 9. 10. 10. 8. 6. 4. 2. 1. -0. -2. -3. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. -10. -11. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. -0. -3. -6. -10. -11. -11. -12. -12. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 6. 9. 9. 6. -4. -14. -26. -35. -40. -44. -47. -48. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 70. LAT, LON: 16.8 127.3 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP152017 OTIS 09/17/17 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 25.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.71 8.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 57.2 40.5 to 149.3 0.15 1.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.4 18.9 to 1.4 0.83 8.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 3.4 0.0 to 106.7 0.03 0.3 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 70.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.83 6.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 37.0 -33.0 to 156.2 0.37 2.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.78 5.8 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 8.3 62.3 to 0.0 0.87 -1.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.2 to -1.9 0.68 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 476.8 735.9 to -82.5 0.32 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 44% is 5.7 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 38% is 2.5 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 32% is 3.1 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 27% is 3.6 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.9 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 24% is 2.9 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 44.2% 38.0% 32.4% 26.7% 20.3% 23.7% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 9.9% 4.9% 3.4% 0.5% 0.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 2.7% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 18.9% 14.4% 12.0% 9.1% 6.8% 8.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP152017 OTIS 09/17/17 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##