* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * OTIS EP152017 09/17/17 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 53 56 57 56 53 48 43 37 33 31 30 29 V (KT) LAND 50 53 56 57 56 53 48 43 37 33 31 30 29 V (KT) LGEM 50 54 56 56 54 48 40 33 28 24 22 20 18 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 1 2 3 6 5 6 5 11 13 13 7 5 3 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -1 0 0 -1 6 5 0 0 4 6 4 -2 SHEAR DIR 133 205 191 212 214 169 130 111 115 132 149 133 305 SST (C) 27.3 27.1 26.9 26.7 26.4 26.0 25.9 26.0 26.2 26.6 27.0 27.4 27.8 POT. INT. (KT) 134 132 130 128 125 120 119 121 124 129 134 138 143 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.5 -52.2 -52.3 -52.6 -52.1 -52.7 -52.6 -53.3 -53.1 -53.7 -53.6 -54.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 4 3 3 3 2 2 2 2 3 3 4 5 5 700-500 MB RH 53 52 52 52 49 55 52 50 53 53 51 51 58 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 15 16 16 15 14 12 11 8 7 7 6 5 850 MB ENV VOR 1 -9 -8 9 1 0 -2 -9 -17 -20 -9 19 30 200 MB DIV 11 15 29 47 33 43 52 39 13 7 1 20 10 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 1 0 -2 0 0 0 0 0 0 -1 LAND (KM) 1799 1770 1742 1706 1672 1628 1638 1723 1863 2012 2176 2170 1974 LAT (DEG N) 16.3 16.7 17.1 17.6 18.0 18.7 18.9 18.5 17.8 17.2 16.9 16.1 15.0 LONG(DEG W) 127.3 127.4 127.4 127.4 127.4 127.5 127.8 128.5 129.6 130.9 132.6 134.6 136.8 STM SPEED (KT) 4 4 4 4 4 2 2 5 7 7 9 11 12 HEAT CONTENT 5 4 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 4 5 8 19 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 3 CX,CY: 0/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 556 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 86.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 4.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 8. 7. 6. 6. 7. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. -10. -11. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -3. -5. -8. -9. -9. -9. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 7. 6. 3. -2. -7. -13. -17. -19. -20. -21. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 16.3 127.3 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP152017 OTIS 09/17/17 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 4.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 79.9 40.5 to 149.3 0.36 2.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.4 18.9 to 1.4 0.89 7.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 3.0 0.0 to 106.7 0.03 0.2 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 50.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.78 4.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 27.0 -33.0 to 156.2 0.32 1.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.66 3.8 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -1.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.2 to -1.9 0.57 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 319.8 735.9 to -82.5 0.51 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 20% is 2.6 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 29% is 1.9 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 2.2 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.6 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 3.2 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 24% is 2.9 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.5 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 19.6% 28.9% 23.0% 19.3% 16.8% 23.7% 18.2% 0.0% Logistic: 7.4% 6.8% 4.0% 0.8% 0.1% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.7% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 9.1% 12.1% 9.1% 6.7% 5.7% 8.1% 6.1% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP152017 OTIS 09/17/17 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##