* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * OTIS EP152017 09/17/17 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 49 53 54 55 54 50 43 37 31 27 25 23 V (KT) LAND 45 49 53 54 55 54 50 43 37 31 27 25 23 V (KT) LGEM 45 50 54 55 55 50 43 36 30 26 22 20 18 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 3 3 2 5 9 5 9 11 15 17 16 5 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -5 -3 -1 -1 1 6 4 3 5 4 6 1 SHEAR DIR 189 264 248 213 231 204 131 108 117 118 143 153 146 SST (C) 27.4 27.3 27.2 26.9 26.7 26.3 26.2 26.1 26.2 26.4 27.2 27.3 27.3 POT. INT. (KT) 134 133 133 131 128 123 121 121 123 127 135 135 135 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.5 -52.6 -52.4 -52.6 -52.6 -52.4 -52.9 -52.9 -53.3 -53.4 -53.8 -53.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 3 2 2 2 3 3 4 5 5 700-500 MB RH 53 54 53 53 50 51 55 50 47 44 47 41 40 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 13 13 13 14 13 12 9 8 6 5 5 4 850 MB ENV VOR 14 8 -2 -5 7 8 7 -1 2 0 4 21 40 200 MB DIV -7 23 24 26 49 46 69 50 48 14 14 4 7 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 1 0 -1 0 0 -1 0 -1 0 LAND (KM) 1831 1825 1820 1780 1741 1696 1704 1736 1808 1950 2178 2248 2118 LAT (DEG N) 16.0 16.2 16.4 16.9 17.4 18.1 18.2 18.2 18.0 17.5 16.5 16.3 16.5 LONG(DEG W) 127.4 127.6 127.7 127.7 127.7 127.8 128.0 128.4 129.1 130.4 132.3 133.8 135.0 STM SPEED (KT) 2 2 4 5 5 2 1 3 5 9 9 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 6 5 5 3 2 6 5 5 4 2 6 7 8 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 2 CX,CY: -1/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 547 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 81.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 6.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 10. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 7. 6. 4. 2. 3. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 6. 5. 3. 2. 2. 0. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -9. -10. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. -1. -4. -6. -8. -8. -9. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 9. 10. 9. 5. -2. -8. -14. -18. -20. -22. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 16.0 127.4 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP152017 OTIS 09/17/17 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.56 5.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 86.8 40.5 to 149.3 0.43 2.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.4 18.9 to 1.4 0.83 6.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 4.2 0.0 to 106.7 0.04 0.3 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.64 3.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 23.0 -33.0 to 156.2 0.30 1.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.68 3.9 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -1.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.2 to -1.9 0.62 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 280.0 735.9 to -82.5 0.56 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 21% is 2.7 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 29% is 1.9 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 2.2 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.6 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 3.2 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 24% is 3.0 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 20% is 2.7 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.4 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 21.1% 29.0% 22.7% 19.2% 16.7% 24.0% 19.9% 7.7% Logistic: 12.7% 10.8% 7.7% 2.6% 0.6% 1.0% 0.3% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.7% 0.7% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 999.0% Consensus: 11.5% 13.5% 10.2% 7.3% 5.8% 8.3% 6.8% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP152017 OTIS 09/17/17 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##