* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * OTIS EP152017 09/17/17 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 43 46 48 48 48 47 43 36 31 27 24 24 V (KT) LAND 40 43 46 48 48 48 47 43 36 31 27 24 24 V (KT) LGEM 40 44 46 48 48 45 40 35 29 25 21 18 16 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 3 2 1 3 6 7 6 13 18 18 20 9 2 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -4 -4 -3 -1 -2 4 5 3 4 3 7 5 SHEAR DIR 145 180 249 229 218 248 153 114 107 112 128 157 171 SST (C) 27.5 27.4 27.3 27.2 27.0 26.6 26.3 26.2 26.3 26.5 27.0 27.4 27.6 POT. INT. (KT) 135 133 133 133 131 127 122 122 124 127 133 137 139 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.4 -52.7 -52.7 -52.4 -52.8 -52.3 -52.9 -52.8 -53.4 -53.3 -53.7 -53.6 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 -0.2 -0.3 -0.3 -0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 4 4 4 3 2 2 3 3 4 4 5 700-500 MB RH 52 53 54 52 53 51 53 56 52 50 51 50 51 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 12 12 13 12 13 12 11 8 7 6 5 5 850 MB ENV VOR 3 10 6 -5 -9 -1 3 -2 -9 -10 5 13 40 200 MB DIV -21 -8 26 30 29 42 53 54 61 43 11 18 24 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 0 -2 -1 0 -1 0 0 0 LAND (KM) 1825 1824 1823 1798 1773 1703 1672 1712 1806 1939 2089 2265 2176 LAT (DEG N) 15.9 16.0 16.1 16.5 16.8 17.6 18.1 18.1 17.8 17.3 16.7 16.1 15.5 LONG(DEG W) 127.2 127.3 127.4 127.5 127.5 127.4 127.5 128.0 128.9 130.1 131.4 133.0 134.7 STM SPEED (KT) 2 1 3 4 3 3 2 3 5 7 7 9 8 HEAT CONTENT 6 6 5 5 4 2 7 6 0 3 6 7 9 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 3 CX,CY: -2/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 554 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 76.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 6.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 10. 12. 13. 14. 15. 14. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 8. 6. 3. 1. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -5. -6. -7. -8. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 8. 8. 8. 7. 3. -4. -9. -13. -16. -16. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 15.9 127.2 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP152017 OTIS 09/17/17 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 4.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 93.1 40.5 to 149.3 0.48 2.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.3 18.9 to 1.4 0.89 6.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 5.2 0.0 to 106.7 0.05 0.3 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 40.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.50 2.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 11.2 -33.0 to 156.2 0.23 1.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.62 3.3 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -1.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.2 to -1.9 0.56 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 243.6 735.9 to -82.5 0.60 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.1 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 25% is 1.6 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 1.9 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.2 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.8 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 20% is 2.5 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.4 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.5 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 15.9% 25.1% 20.0% 16.7% 14.8% 20.4% 17.7% 8.2% Logistic: 8.3% 11.7% 8.6% 3.2% 1.0% 1.3% 0.5% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 8.1% 12.4% 9.6% 6.7% 5.3% 7.2% 6.0% 2.8% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP152017 OTIS 09/17/17 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##