* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FIFTEEN EP152017 09/16/17 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 30 31 31 33 33 33 34 29 26 21 18 V (KT) LAND 30 30 30 31 31 33 33 33 34 29 26 21 18 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 30 30 30 29 28 25 23 20 18 15 DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 4 3 3 3 3 8 4 10 13 19 17 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -7 -7 -5 -2 -1 0 1 3 0 3 2 6 1 SHEAR DIR 28 16 40 148 165 172 186 173 120 116 126 140 162 SST (C) 27.7 27.7 27.7 27.6 27.6 27.4 27.2 26.9 26.6 26.2 26.1 26.1 26.3 POT. INT. (KT) 137 137 137 136 136 134 132 129 126 123 122 123 125 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.4 -52.5 -52.3 -52.3 -52.5 -52.4 -52.6 -52.6 -53.0 -53.1 -53.4 -53.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 4 4 4 4 3 3 2 2 3 3 4 700-500 MB RH 54 54 52 52 53 51 48 46 46 42 42 39 41 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 8 8 7 7 850 MB ENV VOR -10 -11 -15 -14 -8 -23 -18 -14 6 11 9 6 23 200 MB DIV -45 -35 -32 -29 -8 9 22 5 21 16 30 0 5 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -1 -1 0 0 0 1 LAND (KM) 1702 1718 1734 1740 1747 1718 1669 1620 1587 1611 1705 1817 1963 LAT (DEG N) 15.9 15.9 15.8 15.9 16.0 16.5 17.0 17.6 18.2 18.5 18.3 18.1 17.8 LONG(DEG W) 125.6 125.8 125.9 126.1 126.2 126.4 126.3 126.3 126.5 127.1 128.1 129.3 130.8 STM SPEED (KT) 2 2 1 2 2 3 3 3 3 4 5 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 9 8 8 7 7 7 6 2 9 2 1 3 2 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):260/ 2 CX,CY: -1/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 581 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 20.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 2.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 7. 12. 16. 20. 22. 23. 24. 22. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 9. 10. 9. 8. 5. 4. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. -4. -4. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -8. -8. -8. -9. -9. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 3. 3. 4. -1. -4. -9. -12. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 15.9 125.6 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP152017 FIFTEEN 09/16/17 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 106.5 40.5 to 149.3 0.61 2.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.6 18.9 to 1.4 0.88 5.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 7.8 0.0 to 106.7 0.07 0.4 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -29.8 -33.0 to 156.2 0.02 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.71 3.2 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 7.5 62.3 to 0.0 0.88 -1.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.2 to -1.9 0.37 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 178.0 735.9 to -82.5 0.68 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 1.2 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.4 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.5 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.8 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 19.1% 14.5% 11.3% 0.0% 14.8% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.7% 5.7% 3.1% 1.0% 0.3% 2.3% 0.2% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.6% 8.3% 5.9% 4.1% 0.1% 5.7% 0.1% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP152017 FIFTEEN 09/16/17 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##