* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FIFTEEN EP152017 09/16/17 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 31 32 33 36 39 38 41 38 33 28 24 V (KT) LAND 30 30 31 32 33 36 39 38 41 38 33 28 24 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 30 30 31 31 31 29 27 24 21 18 16 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 3 3 2 3 3 6 7 3 12 18 15 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -5 -5 -3 -2 -1 3 2 6 2 0 3 3 SHEAR DIR 63 65 15 33 135 135 153 180 129 99 118 139 140 SST (C) 27.7 27.7 27.7 27.7 27.6 27.5 27.3 27.0 26.8 26.5 26.1 26.0 26.1 POT. INT. (KT) 137 137 137 136 136 135 134 130 128 126 122 122 123 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.1 -52.3 -52.4 -52.2 -52.4 -52.3 -52.5 -52.2 -52.8 -52.8 -53.1 -53.1 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 -0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 5 4 4 4 3 3 3 2 3 3 3 700-500 MB RH 53 54 54 51 52 54 49 47 46 45 43 42 40 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 13 12 12 12 12 13 12 13 11 10 8 8 850 MB ENV VOR -14 -9 -11 -14 -14 -9 -28 -7 3 8 7 4 17 200 MB DIV -39 -41 -32 -27 -31 13 21 20 27 5 15 15 2 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 0 -2 -4 -2 0 0 1 3 LAND (KM) 1670 1690 1710 1716 1721 1714 1655 1598 1551 1557 1611 1722 1857 LAT (DEG N) 16.0 16.0 15.9 16.0 16.0 16.3 17.0 17.6 18.1 18.4 18.6 18.4 18.0 LONG(DEG W) 125.3 125.5 125.7 125.8 125.9 126.1 126.1 126.0 125.9 126.3 127.2 128.4 129.7 STM SPEED (KT) 2 2 1 1 1 3 3 3 2 3 5 6 7 HEAT CONTENT 10 9 9 8 8 8 6 2 10 4 1 0 3 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 2 CX,CY: -1/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 576 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 38.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 2.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 7. 12. 16. 20. 22. 24. 24. 23. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 9. 10. 11. 10. 7. 6. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. -0. 1. -1. -3. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 8. 11. 8. 4. -2. -5. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 16.0 125.3 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP152017 FIFTEEN 09/16/17 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 106.5 40.5 to 149.3 0.61 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.3 18.9 to 1.4 0.89 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 8.8 0.0 to 106.7 0.08 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -34.0 -33.0 to 156.2 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.58 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.1 2.2 to -1.9 0.27 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 178.8 735.9 to -82.5 0.68 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.7 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.7 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 13.9% 0.0% 9.3% Logistic: 1.7% 7.3% 4.0% 1.0% 0.3% 2.0% 0.3% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.6% 2.4% 1.3% 0.3% 0.1% 5.3% 0.1% 3.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP152017 FIFTEEN 09/16/17 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##