* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FIFTEEN EP152017 09/15/17 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 31 32 33 36 39 41 42 41 37 34 28 V (KT) LAND 30 30 31 32 33 36 39 41 42 41 37 34 28 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 30 30 31 32 32 31 29 26 24 21 18 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 5 4 3 2 5 3 7 6 9 13 16 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -6 -5 -4 -5 -4 -1 4 3 4 1 3 6 9 SHEAR DIR 58 64 53 40 64 132 154 158 153 122 97 128 124 SST (C) 27.8 27.7 27.7 27.7 27.7 27.6 27.4 27.2 26.8 26.5 26.3 26.1 26.1 POT. INT. (KT) 139 138 137 137 136 136 135 133 128 125 124 123 123 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.1 -52.2 -52.3 -52.3 -52.3 -52.5 -52.5 -52.5 -52.4 -52.8 -52.8 -53.0 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 4 4 3 3 2 3 2 3 3 700-500 MB RH 55 56 57 56 54 54 51 48 43 40 38 37 37 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 13 13 13 11 11 9 850 MB ENV VOR -10 -14 -8 -8 -11 6 -3 5 16 30 33 28 22 200 MB DIV -20 -31 -37 -33 -32 13 2 25 39 32 30 35 3 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -2 -3 0 1 2 6 LAND (KM) 1661 1689 1717 1733 1749 1747 1689 1623 1573 1580 1618 1705 1825 LAT (DEG N) 16.0 15.9 15.8 15.8 15.7 16.0 16.6 17.3 18.0 18.3 18.4 18.3 18.1 LONG(DEG W) 125.2 125.5 125.7 125.9 126.0 126.2 126.1 126.0 126.1 126.5 127.1 128.1 129.4 STM SPEED (KT) 3 3 2 2 1 2 4 3 3 3 4 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 11 11 11 10 10 9 10 6 2 1 1 1 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 555 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 34.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 1.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 7. 12. 17. 20. 23. 24. 24. 23. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 9. 9. 9. 8. 6. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 11. 12. 11. 7. 4. -2. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 16.0 125.2 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP152017 FIFTEEN 09/15/17 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 107.3 40.5 to 149.3 0.61 2.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.4 18.9 to 1.4 0.83 4.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 10.6 0.0 to 106.7 0.10 0.4 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : -30.6 -33.0 to 156.2 0.01 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.52 2.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -1.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.2 2.2 to -1.9 0.25 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 161.2 735.9 to -82.5 0.70 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.5 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 0.9 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.1 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.2 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.6 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.7 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.1% 13.7% 11.5% 9.0% 0.0% 12.6% 0.0% 9.2% Logistic: 1.9% 11.4% 6.0% 1.6% 0.5% 2.0% 0.3% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.0% 8.4% 5.8% 3.5% 0.2% 4.9% 0.1% 3.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP152017 FIFTEEN 09/15/17 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##