* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FIFTEEN EP152017 09/15/17 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 31 32 34 38 42 43 47 47 43 39 35 V (KT) LAND 30 30 31 32 34 38 42 43 47 47 43 39 35 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 30 30 31 31 33 34 33 32 29 26 24 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 7 5 5 3 4 5 11 8 8 11 14 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -5 -5 -4 -5 -2 0 2 1 3 2 4 5 SHEAR DIR 56 55 48 41 24 78 74 115 130 106 95 114 124 SST (C) 27.9 27.8 27.8 27.8 27.8 27.7 27.6 27.4 27.2 27.0 26.9 26.8 26.5 POT. INT. (KT) 140 138 138 138 138 137 136 134 132 129 128 129 126 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.4 -52.1 -52.0 -52.0 -51.7 -52.2 -51.8 -52.2 -51.8 -52.6 -52.4 -52.9 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 5 5 5 4 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 700-500 MB RH 57 56 58 57 57 55 56 54 49 48 48 48 48 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 14 14 15 15 15 15 15 16 15 14 13 12 850 MB ENV VOR -4 -11 -15 -7 -6 -5 7 -6 4 25 19 21 19 200 MB DIV -9 -18 -32 -36 -28 -1 9 21 38 24 35 44 44 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -3 -5 -1 0 1 1 LAND (KM) 1635 1659 1683 1707 1731 1743 1707 1659 1617 1591 1597 1626 1687 LAT (DEG N) 15.9 15.9 15.8 15.7 15.6 15.8 16.2 16.7 17.2 17.6 17.7 17.8 17.8 LONG(DEG W) 124.8 125.1 125.3 125.5 125.7 126.0 125.9 125.8 125.8 125.9 126.1 126.6 127.4 STM SPEED (KT) 4 2 2 2 2 2 3 3 2 2 2 3 4 HEAT CONTENT 10 11 11 11 10 10 11 9 6 3 3 2 2 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 547 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 14.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 2.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 7. 12. 17. 21. 23. 25. 25. 24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 8. 8. 8. 7. 6. 6. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. 1. -0. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. -7. -9. -9. -8. -8. -9. -9. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -0. 1. 2. 4. 8. 12. 13. 17. 17. 13. 9. 5. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 15.9 124.8 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP152017 FIFTEEN 09/15/17 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 108.7 40.5 to 149.3 0.63 2.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.9 18.9 to 1.4 0.74 3.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 10.6 0.0 to 106.7 0.10 0.4 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : -24.6 -33.0 to 156.2 0.04 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.52 2.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 3.9 62.3 to 0.0 0.94 -1.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.0 2.2 to -1.9 0.30 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 150.8 735.9 to -82.5 0.71 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.5 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 0.9 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.1 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.1 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.5 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.6 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.1% 13.4% 10.9% 8.5% 0.0% 12.0% 0.0% 8.6% Logistic: 1.1% 6.7% 3.3% 0.8% 0.3% 1.9% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.7% 6.7% 4.8% 3.1% 0.1% 4.6% 0.0% 2.9% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP152017 FIFTEEN 09/15/17 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##