* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FIFTEEN EP152017 09/14/17 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 31 32 34 40 46 49 52 53 51 49 45 V (KT) LAND 30 30 31 32 34 40 46 49 52 53 51 49 45 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 30 30 30 31 33 34 35 36 35 34 32 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 11 9 9 8 7 6 10 9 13 15 14 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -4 -3 -3 -5 -5 -5 -3 -1 0 -1 4 5 SHEAR DIR 93 83 65 57 59 58 71 84 78 72 54 63 68 SST (C) 28.2 28.2 28.2 28.1 28.0 27.9 27.8 27.8 27.8 27.8 27.8 27.7 27.4 POT. INT. (KT) 144 144 144 143 141 139 137 136 136 137 138 138 135 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.4 -52.0 -51.9 -52.2 -51.7 -51.7 -51.4 -51.8 -51.2 -51.9 -51.6 -52.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 3 700-500 MB RH 63 61 61 59 58 58 57 54 55 54 50 48 44 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 15 14 14 15 16 17 18 18 18 16 16 15 850 MB ENV VOR 13 -1 -9 -17 -18 -22 -12 -12 0 0 -4 14 15 200 MB DIV 35 21 10 8 8 -9 -29 -9 21 12 15 10 -1 700-850 TADV -3 -3 -1 -1 0 0 0 1 0 -1 -1 0 0 LAND (KM) 1506 1540 1575 1614 1654 1703 1737 1737 1737 1737 1745 1710 1637 LAT (DEG N) 15.3 15.4 15.4 15.4 15.4 15.4 15.4 15.4 15.4 15.4 15.4 15.9 16.8 LONG(DEG W) 122.6 123.1 123.6 124.1 124.6 125.2 125.6 125.6 125.6 125.6 125.7 125.7 125.6 STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 5 5 4 2 1 0 0 0 1 3 4 HEAT CONTENT 13 13 13 13 13 13 12 12 12 12 12 13 10 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 498 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 37.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 7. 12. 17. 21. 24. 26. 26. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 4. 2. 1. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 11. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -0. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 2. 2. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -5. -5. -6. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 2. 4. 10. 16. 19. 22. 23. 21. 19. 15. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 15.3 122.6 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP152017 FIFTEEN 09/14/17 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 1.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 113.3 40.5 to 149.3 0.67 2.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.4 18.9 to 1.4 0.49 2.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 13.0 0.0 to 106.7 0.12 0.5 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 16.4 -33.0 to 156.2 0.26 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.48 1.6 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -1.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.5 2.2 to -1.9 0.16 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 137.4 735.9 to -82.5 0.73 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 0.8 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 0.9 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 0.9 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.3 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.5 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.5% 12.1% 9.2% 7.1% 0.0% 10.9% 11.2% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 2.1% 0.9% 0.2% 0.0% 0.8% 0.4% 0.5% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.9% 4.7% 3.4% 2.4% 0.0% 3.9% 3.9% 0.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP152017 FIFTEEN 09/14/17 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##