* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FIFTEEN EP152017 09/13/17 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 34 35 37 41 47 51 53 56 57 57 56 V (KT) LAND 30 32 34 35 37 41 47 51 53 56 57 57 56 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 31 32 32 33 35 36 38 41 42 44 45 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 14 14 14 12 9 6 4 8 6 8 12 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -2 -4 -6 -6 -1 -6 -3 -5 -3 0 0 4 SHEAR DIR 73 80 90 102 106 106 76 33 25 60 50 78 77 SST (C) 28.3 28.3 28.3 28.2 28.2 28.0 27.9 27.9 27.8 27.8 27.8 27.8 27.8 POT. INT. (KT) 147 146 146 144 144 141 140 139 137 137 137 137 137 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.1 -52.4 -52.5 -52.5 -52.1 -52.3 -51.9 -52.0 -51.4 -51.5 -51.6 -51.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 -0.1 -0.2 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 -0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 4 4 3 3 3 700-500 MB RH 65 67 65 62 59 58 56 56 54 55 51 51 51 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 13 12 12 12 12 13 12 13 14 15 15 15 850 MB ENV VOR 49 37 25 6 -1 -8 -13 -7 -19 -10 -9 2 9 200 MB DIV 42 18 10 0 -11 -2 -4 0 -4 31 35 17 -6 700-850 TADV -2 -3 -1 -2 -2 0 0 0 0 0 -1 -2 -1 LAND (KM) 1418 1461 1507 1532 1559 1607 1672 1720 1737 1730 1707 1707 1730 LAT (DEG N) 15.0 15.1 15.2 15.4 15.5 15.6 15.5 15.4 15.4 15.5 15.7 15.7 15.5 LONG(DEG W) 121.0 121.8 122.5 123.0 123.5 124.2 124.9 125.4 125.6 125.6 125.5 125.5 125.6 STM SPEED (KT) 9 7 6 5 4 3 3 2 1 0 1 1 1 HEAT CONTENT 16 15 15 14 13 12 12 12 12 12 11 11 12 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 459 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 85.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 7. 12. 18. 22. 25. 26. 27. 26. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 2. 3. 3. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 5. 7. 11. 17. 21. 23. 26. 27. 27. 26. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 15.0 121.0 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP152017 FIFTEEN 09/13/17 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 1.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 115.4 40.5 to 149.3 0.69 2.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.3 18.9 to 1.4 0.32 1.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 14.6 0.0 to 106.7 0.14 0.5 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 11.8 -33.0 to 156.2 0.24 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.65 2.1 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -0.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.9 2.2 to -1.9 0.08 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 136.4 735.9 to -82.5 0.73 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.5 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 0.8 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 0.8 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.3 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.0% 12.9% 8.5% 0.0% 0.0% 10.2% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.0% 6.1% 2.0% 0.5% 0.2% 2.1% 3.3% 10.5% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.7% 6.4% 3.5% 0.2% 0.1% 4.1% 1.1% 3.5% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP152017 FIFTEEN 09/13/17 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##