* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FIFTEEN EP152017 09/13/17 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 29 29 29 29 34 37 41 46 50 52 53 53 V (KT) LAND 30 29 29 29 29 34 37 41 46 50 52 53 53 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 29 29 29 30 31 32 34 36 39 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 16 14 16 17 14 11 15 9 7 7 9 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 2 -2 -4 -3 -5 -5 -4 -4 -3 -1 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 102 91 85 94 104 91 104 74 63 32 81 N/A N/A SST (C) 28.5 28.5 28.4 28.4 28.3 28.2 28.2 28.2 28.1 28.0 28.1 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 149 148 147 147 146 144 143 143 141 139 141 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.4 -52.6 -52.5 -52.2 -52.4 -52.0 -52.3 -51.8 -52.0 -51.7 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 5 6 5 5 5 5 5 5 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 65 67 68 66 66 61 58 57 55 54 52 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 11 11 11 10 10 10 10 10 10 12 12 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 80 76 61 46 34 8 -14 -15 -21 -22 -23 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 41 47 49 43 42 4 12 23 31 -11 -21 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 1 0 -1 -3 -2 -2 0 0 1 0 0 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1182 1255 1323 1360 1398 1462 1514 1551 1575 1599 1599 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 15.5 15.3 15.0 15.0 15.0 15.3 15.3 15.4 15.6 15.6 15.5 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 118.1 118.8 119.5 120.1 120.7 122.0 122.7 123.3 123.8 124.1 124.0 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 7 6 6 6 5 3 3 2 0 1 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 26 19 17 16 16 14 14 13 12 12 12 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 489 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 35.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 40.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 3. 7. 13. 18. 23. 25. 27. 28. 27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -1. -1. 4. 7. 11. 16. 20. 22. 23. 24. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 15.5 118.1 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP152017 FIFTEEN 09/13/17 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 117.4 40.5 to 149.3 0.71 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.2 18.9 to 1.4 0.21 0.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 18.8 0.0 to 106.7 0.18 0.3 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 44.4 -33.0 to 156.2 0.41 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 35.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.06 0.1 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -0.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 2.0 2.2 to -1.9 0.05 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 127.8 735.9 to -82.5 0.74 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.2 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.3 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 7% is 0.8 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.9% 4.7% 3.2% 0.0% 0.0% 6.6% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 1.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 1.2% 1.0% 2.4% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.7% 1.9% 1.2% 0.0% 0.0% 2.6% 0.3% 0.8% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP152017 FIFTEEN 09/13/17 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##