* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FIFTEEN EP152017 09/12/17 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 32 34 35 38 40 42 46 47 49 49 49 V (KT) LAND 30 31 32 34 35 38 40 42 46 47 49 49 49 V (KT) LGEM 30 31 32 33 33 33 34 35 37 40 42 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 18 16 13 15 18 13 12 6 7 5 4 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 4 2 -2 -5 -3 -5 -3 -6 -2 -1 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 107 109 98 90 96 100 112 89 64 98 84 N/A N/A SST (C) 28.5 28.5 28.5 28.4 28.3 28.3 28.2 28.1 28.0 28.0 28.0 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 150 149 148 147 146 145 143 142 140 138 139 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.2 -52.5 -52.7 -52.6 -52.4 -52.4 -52.1 -52.2 -52.1 -52.1 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 6 5 6 5 5 4 4 4 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 65 66 67 68 66 64 57 57 53 52 50 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 10 10 10 10 9 9 8 8 8 8 8 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 88 95 90 74 56 26 -2 -2 0 -1 -15 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 36 39 47 38 38 24 16 34 29 14 -19 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 4 3 1 0 -2 -1 0 0 1 1 0 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1085 1163 1244 1299 1351 1421 1453 1482 1490 1498 1505 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 15.7 15.5 15.3 15.2 15.1 15.2 15.5 15.7 16.0 16.0 15.9 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 117.0 117.9 118.7 119.4 120.1 121.3 122.1 122.7 123.1 123.2 123.2 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 8 7 7 6 5 4 3 2 0 1 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 24 22 19 16 16 16 15 14 13 13 13 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 531 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 31.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 3. 7. 13. 18. 23. 25. 27. 28. 27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 10. 12. 16. 17. 19. 19. 19. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 15.7 117.0 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP152017 FIFTEEN 09/12/17 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 118.0 40.5 to 149.3 0.71 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.9 18.9 to 1.4 0.17 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 19.4 0.0 to 106.7 0.18 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 39.6 -33.0 to 156.2 0.38 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.43 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 2.3 2.2 to -1.9 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 132.2 735.9 to -82.5 0.74 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.3% 2.3% 0.8% 0.3% 0.1% 1.4% 1.3% 3.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 0.8% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.5% 0.4% 1.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP152017 FIFTEEN 09/12/17 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##