* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FIFTEEN EP152017 09/12/17 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 31 32 33 35 39 40 41 43 44 44 45 V (KT) LAND 30 31 31 32 33 35 39 40 41 43 44 44 45 V (KT) LGEM 30 32 32 33 33 34 35 36 37 39 41 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 16 18 18 16 15 16 14 11 5 4 4 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 2 2 -1 -5 -6 -6 -6 -5 -4 0 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 100 100 101 93 86 103 103 114 82 76 34 N/A N/A SST (C) 28.5 28.6 28.6 28.5 28.4 28.3 28.2 28.1 28.0 27.9 27.8 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 150 151 150 149 147 146 144 143 142 141 140 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.7 -52.2 -52.5 -52.8 -52.3 -52.5 -52.2 -52.4 -52.1 -52.4 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 5 4 4 4 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 70 69 69 69 69 67 62 59 55 54 52 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 10 10 10 10 10 8 8 7 6 5 4 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 81 87 94 88 71 41 17 3 7 15 19 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 59 35 37 50 49 42 12 21 14 -1 -1 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 1 2 1 0 -2 -3 -2 -1 0 0 0 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 998 1093 1191 1263 1329 1409 1462 1490 1538 1611 1707 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 15.7 15.5 15.2 15.1 15.0 15.1 15.3 15.7 16.0 16.0 15.7 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 115.7 116.8 117.9 118.7 119.6 121.0 122.0 122.8 123.7 124.6 125.5 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 9 8 8 6 5 5 4 4 4 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 28 25 23 19 17 16 16 14 12 12 13 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):260/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 500 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 33.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 40.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 7. 13. 18. 23. 26. 27. 28. 27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. -0. -2. -3. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -0. -2. -3. -4. -6. -6. -8. -7. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -4. -3. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 9. 10. 11. 13. 14. 14. 15. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 15.7 115.7 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP152017 FIFTEEN 09/12/17 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 119.5 40.5 to 149.3 0.73 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.9 18.9 to 1.4 0.12 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 22.4 0.0 to 106.7 0.21 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 46.0 -33.0 to 156.2 0.42 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 33.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.12 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 2.4 2.2 to -1.9 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 118.0 735.9 to -82.5 0.76 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.3% 3.6% 1.1% 0.4% 0.1% 1.0% 1.1% 3.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Consensus: 0.1% 1.2% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.4% 0.4% 1.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP152017 FIFTEEN 09/12/17 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##