* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FIFTEEN EP152017 09/12/17 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 26 28 30 34 38 40 42 44 46 47 47 V (KT) LAND 25 25 26 28 30 34 38 40 42 44 46 47 47 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 25 24 25 26 28 29 30 32 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 14 15 17 17 14 14 11 12 5 5 4 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 3 2 1 0 -4 -4 -6 -1 -5 -4 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 112 101 94 99 98 99 131 112 125 70 111 N/A N/A SST (C) 28.5 28.5 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.4 28.2 28.2 28.0 27.8 27.6 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 151 150 151 150 150 147 144 144 142 140 138 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -53.0 -52.8 -52.2 -52.4 -52.7 -52.5 -52.6 -52.3 -52.5 -52.2 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 4 4 4 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 68 70 69 70 70 67 65 57 60 59 57 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 79 75 75 82 77 46 28 9 1 17 35 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 81 51 30 48 62 42 40 10 27 23 13 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 2 2 2 3 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 894 978 1068 1151 1236 1344 1406 1452 1482 1557 1651 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 16.0 15.8 15.5 15.3 15.1 15.1 15.3 15.6 16.1 16.3 16.4 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 114.4 115.5 116.5 117.5 118.4 120.0 121.2 122.2 123.1 124.2 125.4 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 13 10 10 9 8 7 6 5 5 5 6 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 26 29 27 25 21 14 13 13 12 9 11 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 15 CX,CY: -14/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 490 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 19.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. 0. 2. 7. 14. 20. 26. 29. 31. 32. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -6. -8. -8. -8. -8. -9. -9. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 3. 5. 9. 13. 15. 17. 19. 21. 22. 22. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 16.0 114.4 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP152017 FIFTEEN 09/12/17 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 1.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 125.2 40.5 to 149.3 0.78 2.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.6 18.9 to 1.4 0.19 0.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 25.6 0.0 to 106.7 0.24 0.9 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 54.4 -33.0 to 156.2 0.46 1.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.60 2.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -0.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.6 2.2 to -1.9 0.14 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 92.8 735.9 to -82.5 0.79 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 0.9 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 0.9 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.4 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.6 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 13.8% 9.1% 0.0% 0.0% 11.1% 12.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 1.9% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1% 3.4% 1.0% 2.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 5.3% 3.2% 0.1% 0.0% 4.8% 4.3% 0.7% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP152017 FIFTEEN 09/12/17 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##