* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FIFTEEN EP152017 09/12/17 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 26 28 29 34 38 41 42 43 45 45 46 V (KT) LAND 25 25 26 28 29 34 38 41 42 43 45 45 46 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 24 24 25 26 27 29 31 33 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 19 13 14 15 16 12 15 10 13 7 7 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 1 0 0 2 -3 -6 -7 -7 -5 -4 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 97 106 100 98 110 103 109 111 107 112 115 N/A N/A SST (C) 28.5 28.5 28.5 28.5 28.6 28.5 28.3 28.2 28.1 28.0 27.9 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 150 150 150 149 150 149 146 144 143 142 141 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.6 -52.9 -52.7 -52.2 -52.6 -52.2 -52.8 -52.3 -52.5 -52.3 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 6 6 6 5 6 5 4 4 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 67 67 68 68 69 69 67 62 58 58 59 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 10 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 67 76 74 74 80 79 40 21 -14 -3 -1 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 82 79 52 26 42 64 62 13 10 24 8 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 1 2 3 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 797 866 946 1029 1116 1259 1352 1403 1429 1482 1570 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 16.3 16.2 16.0 15.8 15.5 15.3 15.3 15.5 15.8 16.0 16.0 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 113.0 114.2 115.3 116.3 117.2 118.9 120.4 121.4 122.1 123.0 124.1 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 10 9 9 8 6 4 4 5 5 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 18 24 29 27 27 20 14 14 14 14 12 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 541 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 16.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 1.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. 0. 2. 7. 14. 21. 26. 29. 31. 32. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. -1. -3. -4. -3. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. 5. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -9. -9. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 3. 4. 9. 13. 16. 17. 18. 20. 20. 21. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 16.3 113.0 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP152017 FIFTEEN 09/12/17 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 1.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 124.9 40.5 to 149.3 0.78 2.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.4 18.9 to 1.4 0.20 0.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 25.0 0.0 to 106.7 0.23 0.8 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 56.2 -33.0 to 156.2 0.47 1.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.50 1.6 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -0.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.8 2.2 to -1.9 0.10 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 100.4 735.9 to -82.5 0.78 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 0.8 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 0.8 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.4 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.6 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 11.9% 8.1% 0.0% 0.0% 11.3% 12.1% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 2.2% 0.7% 0.2% 0.1% 4.4% 1.1% 2.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 4.7% 2.9% 0.1% 0.0% 5.2% 4.4% 0.7% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP152017 FIFTEEN 09/12/17 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##