* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FIFTEEN EP152017 09/11/17 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 29 31 33 37 37 35 31 27 23 19 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 29 31 33 37 37 35 31 27 23 19 V (KT) LGEM 25 27 28 28 29 28 28 27 25 23 21 19 17 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 16 15 15 15 15 13 10 16 15 17 19 21 25 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 3 2 0 0 0 -2 -4 -5 -1 0 -2 -9 SHEAR DIR 91 116 120 116 118 147 150 176 213 222 254 256 258 SST (C) 28.8 28.5 28.5 28.4 28.2 27.8 27.6 26.9 26.1 25.5 25.3 25.2 25.2 POT. INT. (KT) 154 152 152 150 148 143 140 133 124 117 115 113 112 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.2 -52.6 -52.9 -52.7 -52.4 -52.7 -52.4 -52.5 -52.7 -53.2 -53.1 -53.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 7 6 5 5 4 3 2 2 2 3 2 700-500 MB RH 67 66 63 62 59 57 53 48 43 41 40 38 36 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 66 66 81 79 72 57 46 43 36 51 39 20 7 200 MB DIV 78 81 70 50 35 34 23 24 8 11 -1 -26 -18 700-850 TADV 0 4 5 5 6 6 5 7 5 5 6 0 2 LAND (KM) 743 795 895 1005 1119 1275 1419 1500 1573 1654 1750 1839 1897 LAT (DEG N) 16.4 16.5 16.5 16.5 16.5 16.7 17.2 18.1 18.8 19.5 19.9 20.2 20.3 LONG(DEG W) 111.7 113.4 115.2 116.8 118.4 121.0 123.3 125.2 126.9 128.5 129.9 131.1 131.8 STM SPEED (KT) 15 17 16 15 14 12 11 9 8 7 6 5 3 HEAT CONTENT 18 18 23 24 19 8 8 3 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 550 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 29.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 29.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. 0. 1. 7. 14. 20. 25. 28. 29. 29. 27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. -1. -4. -7. -9. -10. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -6. -6. -6. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -1. -0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 12. 12. 10. 6. 2. -2. -6. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 16.4 111.7 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP152017 FIFTEEN 09/11/17 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 1.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 126.3 40.5 to 149.3 0.79 2.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.2 18.9 to 1.4 0.21 0.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 20.4 0.0 to 106.7 0.19 0.6 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 62.8 -33.0 to 156.2 0.51 1.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 29.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.24 0.7 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -0.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 2.0 2.2 to -1.9 0.05 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 120.8 735.9 to -82.5 0.75 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 0.5 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 0.6 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.2 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 8.3% 6.7% 0.0% 0.0% 9.4% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.9% 7.6% 3.1% 1.0% 0.4% 3.4% 1.0% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.3% 5.5% 3.3% 0.3% 0.1% 4.3% 0.3% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP152017 FIFTEEN 09/11/17 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##