* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NEWTON EP152016 09/07/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 44 37 31 28 26 24 21 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 50 40 34 31 29 27 27 27 27 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 50 40 34 31 29 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 18 19 22 23 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 1 4 1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 198 192 190 198 214 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 30.0 28.6 25.6 23.9 22.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 167 153 121 103 91 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.5 -51.4 -51.2 -51.6 -51.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.0 0.7 0.5 0.5 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 3 5 6 5 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 56 52 48 44 43 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 13 10 5 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 50 21 3 11 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 56 51 44 19 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 15 15 10 6 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) -79 -216 -321 -468 -615 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 29.5 30.9 32.3 33.2 34.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 111.5 110.7 109.9 108.7 107.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 16 16 14 13 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 35 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 15/ 16 CX,CY: 4/ 15 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 482 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 47.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 5. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 2. -4. -12. -20. -25. -28. -30. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 6. PERSISTENCE -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -7. -6. -4. -3. -2. 0. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -4. -8. -11. -13. -14. -15. -15. -15. -15. -14. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. ZONAL STORM MOTION -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -5. -4. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -6. -13. -19. -22. -24. -26. -29. -32. -36. -39. -39. -40. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 29.5 111.5 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP152016 NEWTON 09/07/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -15.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.12 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 77.0 40.3 to 144.5 0.35 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 7.0 0.0 to 75.9 0.09 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.8 38.9 to 2.1 0.44 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 21.0 18.9 to 1.4 0.00 0.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 50.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.77 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 33.6 -11.0 to 135.3 0.30 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 161.6 638.0 to -68.2 0.67 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.5 2.1 to -1.7 0.95 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 61.5 81.4 to 0.0 0.24 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 1% is 0.2 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 1.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 999.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP152016 NEWTON 09/07/16 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##