* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NEWTON EP152016 09/06/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 70 67 64 60 54 44 42 38 32 26 22 20 20 V (KT) LAND 70 66 63 49 39 31 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 70 58 60 47 38 30 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 9 13 12 19 23 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 4 1 1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 164 164 201 219 215 229 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.2 28.7 29.8 29.8 27.9 21.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 149 154 165 165 146 78 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.0 -50.4 -50.7 -51.0 -50.8 -51.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.6 0.9 1.1 0.9 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 5 4 3 4 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 66 59 52 50 45 39 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 21 22 17 13 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 48 58 55 50 18 37 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 35 89 84 32 24 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -5 1 19 25 14 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) -30 4 51 -86 -164 -476 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 25.1 26.7 28.2 29.8 31.4 34.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 111.3 111.7 112.0 111.7 111.3 109.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 17 16 15 16 17 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 10 11 26 35 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):330/ 17 CX,CY: -7/ 15 T-12 MAX WIND: 80 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 471 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 84.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 0. -2. -4. -6. -7. -9. -10. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -5. -10. -15. -19. -22. -25. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -2. -6. -13. -21. -23. -24. -25. -24. -23. -22. -20. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -6. -10. -16. -26. -28. -32. -38. -44. -48. -50. -50. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 70. LAT, LON: 25.1 111.3 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP152016 NEWTON 09/06/16 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.20 1.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 85.7 40.3 to 144.5 0.44 1.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 16.4 0.0 to 75.9 0.22 1.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.5 38.9 to 2.1 0.66 3.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.2 18.9 to 1.4 0.21 1.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 70.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.84 3.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 52.8 -11.0 to 135.3 0.44 1.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 318.8 638.0 to -68.2 0.45 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.9 2.1 to -1.7 0.78 -0.7 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 0.6 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.2 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.4 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.5 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 7.7% 18.3% 13.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.3% 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.7% 6.2% 4.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP152016 NEWTON 09/06/16 18 UTC ##