* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NEWTON EP152016 09/06/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 75 76 77 75 69 57 51 46 39 33 28 25 24 V (KT) LAND 75 65 55 60 47 33 29 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 75 66 55 58 47 33 29 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 2 4 8 15 21 26 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 2 2 4 2 2 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 202 181 193 219 213 218 236 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.7 28.7 28.5 29.7 29.9 25.3 21.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 153 153 151 164 166 118 79 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.5 -51.1 -50.6 -50.8 -51.0 -50.6 -51.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.7 0.9 1.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 3 4 5 4 3 6 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 73 69 62 56 52 46 40 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 24 24 23 20 14 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 36 47 51 50 43 11 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 51 46 78 62 38 46 -4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 1 1 5 22 19 9 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 0 -14 -10 47 -63 -268 -545 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 23.5 24.9 26.2 27.9 29.5 32.4 34.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 110.4 111.0 111.5 111.6 111.7 110.6 108.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 15 14 15 17 16 14 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 2 1 3 26 35 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 15 CX,CY: -8/ 12 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 385 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 96.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 0.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 3. 4. 3. -4. -7. -10. -12. -14. -15. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -3. -8. -13. -16. -19. -22. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 7. 8. 8. 9. 9. 9. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -3. -9. -21. -22. -24. -24. -24. -23. -22. -20. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 0. -6. -18. -24. -29. -36. -42. -47. -50. -51. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 75. LAT, LON: 23.5 110.4 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP152016 NEWTON 09/06/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.36 2.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 82.7 40.3 to 144.5 0.41 2.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 13.4 0.0 to 75.9 0.18 1.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.2 38.9 to 2.1 0.73 4.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.2 18.9 to 1.4 0.50 2.8 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 75.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.77 3.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 55.0 -11.0 to 135.3 0.45 1.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 308.6 638.0 to -68.2 0.47 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.1 to -1.7 0.71 -0.8 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 15.0 81.4 to 0.0 0.82 0.6 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.9 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 25% is 1.9 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.1 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.2 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 3.2 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.2 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 12.2% 25.1% 18.2% 14.2% 11.2% 8.7% 0.0% Logistic: 4.5% 0.9% 4.9% 1.6% 0.9% 0.5% 0.0% Bayesian: 1.9% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 6.2% 8.8% 7.8% 5.3% 4.0% 3.1% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP152016 NEWTON 09/06/16 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##