* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NEWTON EP152016 09/06/16 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 80 86 88 87 84 74 61 55 49 43 39 36 34 V (KT) LAND 80 72 63 54 58 38 30 28 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 80 74 65 56 60 40 31 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 1 2 5 12 17 24 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 1 0 1 2 0 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 11 282 218 199 203 209 235 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.3 28.9 28.6 28.8 29.5 29.0 23.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 160 155 152 155 162 157 94 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.3 -51.7 -51.0 -50.4 -50.8 -50.8 -50.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.7 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.6 1.2 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 3 4 5 3 5 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 77 74 70 62 56 49 42 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 22 23 22 20 18 11 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 45 35 40 51 47 22 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 54 49 43 69 71 52 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -3 -1 3 5 12 8 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 102 -8 -5 -1 57 -148 -394 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 22.1 23.4 24.6 26.2 27.7 30.7 33.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 109.5 110.2 110.9 111.4 111.8 111.4 109.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 15 14 15 16 15 15 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 23 2 10 6 22 30 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 15 CX,CY: -8/ 12 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 431 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 95.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 14.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. -3. -7. -10. -12. -15. -16. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -1. -3. -6. -9. -11. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. PERSISTENCE 5. 7. 8. 8. 6. 4. 2. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -2. -4. -14. -22. -23. -23. -23. -22. -21. -19. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -2. -2. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 6. 8. 7. 4. -6. -19. -25. -31. -37. -41. -44. -46. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 80. LAT, LON: 22.1 109.5 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP152016 NEWTON 09/06/16 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 20.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.69 5.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 76.8 40.3 to 144.5 0.35 2.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 12.6 0.0 to 75.9 0.17 1.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.7 38.9 to 2.1 0.58 3.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.5 18.9 to 1.4 0.65 4.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 80.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.71 3.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 57.2 -11.0 to 135.3 0.47 1.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 253.8 638.0 to -68.2 0.54 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.1 to -1.7 0.59 -0.7 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 0.8 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 23% is 3.7 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 29% is 2.2 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 2.6 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 3.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 3.7 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.1 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.2 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 23.2% 28.8% 22.2% 17.2% 15.3% 15.2% 7.3% Logistic: 30.7% 2.9% 22.5% 8.9% 5.1% 6.4% 0.7% Bayesian: 30.6% 4.1% 1.9% 1.0% 0.2% 0.6% 0.0% Consensus: 28.2% 11.9% 15.5% 9.0% 6.9% 7.4% 2.7% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP152016 NEWTON 09/06/16 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##