* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NEWTON EP152016 09/06/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 75 83 87 89 87 81 64 59 52 47 43 40 39 V (KT) LAND 75 83 87 71 59 50 35 29 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 75 84 89 74 61 53 35 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 1 4 3 3 9 14 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 1 0 1 4 6 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 88 28 317 259 204 211 215 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.5 29.3 28.8 28.6 28.3 30.0 26.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 162 159 154 152 149 167 127 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.6 -51.3 -51.5 -50.8 -50.2 -50.7 -50.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.9 0.8 0.4 0.2 0.4 0.9 0.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 4 3 4 4 3 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 80 76 74 69 63 56 48 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 24 25 24 23 20 16 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 43 49 38 41 47 47 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 74 61 52 47 49 53 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 6 -1 0 0 7 8 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 264 110 8 -8 -29 -21 -203 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 20.9 22.1 23.2 24.6 25.9 29.0 32.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 108.6 109.5 110.3 110.9 111.5 111.8 111.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 15 14 14 15 15 16 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 33 22 6 10 14 32 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 14 CX,CY: -8/ 11 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 408 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 27.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 1. -1. -4. -6. -8. -9. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 3. 2. 0. -2. -3. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. PERSISTENCE 6. 9. 10. 10. 8. 6. 3. 1. 0. 0. -2. -3. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -3. -9. -23. -24. -25. -24. -24. -22. -20. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 8. 12. 14. 12. 6. -11. -16. -23. -28. -32. -35. -36. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 75. LAT, LON: 20.9 108.6 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP152016 NEWTON 09/06/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 25.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.78 9.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 80.3 40.3 to 144.5 0.38 3.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 17.0 0.0 to 75.9 0.22 2.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.3 38.9 to 2.1 0.70 7.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.8 18.9 to 1.4 0.86 8.3 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 75.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.77 6.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 56.6 -11.0 to 135.3 0.46 2.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 151.6 638.0 to -68.2 0.69 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.1 to -1.7 0.45 -0.8 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 1.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 51% is 8.1 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 47% is 3.7 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 40% is 4.4 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 40% is 7.4 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 27% is 6.6 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 31% is 4.3 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.3 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 51.1% 47.2% 40.4% 40.0% 27.2% 30.5% 13.7% Logistic: 52.2% 26.4% 55.9% 44.1% 32.7% 34.0% 7.8% Bayesian: 57.3% 12.8% 7.1% 3.6% 1.2% 1.3% 0.0% Consensus: 53.5% 28.8% 34.4% 29.2% 20.3% 21.9% 7.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP152016 NEWTON 09/06/16 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##