* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NEWTON EP152016 09/05/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 60 65 70 73 72 64 53 43 38 34 31 30 V (KT) LAND 55 60 65 61 56 50 36 30 28 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 55 61 66 69 57 49 38 30 28 DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 3 3 4 2 3 12 20 27 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 2 0 0 4 2 0 0 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 337 43 47 21 178 212 217 228 230 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.8 29.6 29.4 29.0 28.5 28.7 29.8 25.6 20.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 165 162 160 156 151 153 164 121 72 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.1 -50.6 -51.3 -51.6 -50.8 -50.3 -50.4 -50.7 -51.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.5 0.3 0.8 1.1 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 81 80 77 74 68 55 50 42 37 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 20 21 22 23 23 19 10 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 41 46 52 43 47 55 28 14 -9 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 85 89 76 55 62 56 32 21 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 7 3 0 0 -1 13 9 8 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 213 283 147 -2 -18 9 -99 -239 -491 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 19.7 20.8 21.8 23.0 24.1 26.8 29.7 32.3 34.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 107.6 108.4 109.2 110.0 110.8 111.7 111.4 110.9 110.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 14 13 13 14 14 14 14 13 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 29 34 23 13 8 15 33 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 14 CX,CY: -8/ 11 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 497 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 39.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 2. 3. 4. 7. 8. 9. 6. 6. 6. 5. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 3. -4. -8. -11. -12. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 1. 3. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. 0. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 3. -1. -12. -22. -23. -22. -22. -20. -19. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 10. 15. 18. 18. 9. -2. -12. -17. -21. -24. -25. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 19.7 107.6 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP152016 NEWTON 09/05/16 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.53 9.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 103.8 40.3 to 144.5 0.61 7.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 21.4 0.0 to 75.9 0.28 4.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.9 38.9 to 2.1 0.79 11.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.0 18.9 to 1.4 0.91 11.8 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 55.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.91 10.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 73.4 -11.0 to 135.3 0.58 3.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 89.8 638.0 to -68.2 0.78 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.1 to -1.7 0.51 -1.3 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 1.6 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 29% is 4.6 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 74% is 5.7 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 58% is 6.7 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 46% is 7.9 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 38% is 9.2 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 60% is 8.5 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 33% is 5.7 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 29.0% 73.6% 58.0% 46.0% 37.8% 60.5% 33.4% Logistic: 41.7% 51.2% 74.9% 61.3% 52.8% 60.9% 27.5% Bayesian: 38.9% 21.0% 9.8% 3.4% 1.4% 4.5% 0.6% Consensus: 36.5% 48.6% 47.6% 36.9% 30.6% 42.0% 20.5% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP152016 NEWTON 09/05/16 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##