* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NEWTON EP152016 09/05/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 55 60 63 67 68 65 52 47 44 42 40 40 V (KT) LAND 50 55 60 63 67 54 56 37 30 28 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 50 57 62 67 69 62 55 37 30 DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 5 3 3 4 3 3 13 21 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 7 6 2 2 5 0 2 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 84 25 62 44 26 116 218 218 232 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.9 29.9 29.7 29.5 29.2 28.9 29.8 29.3 24.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 165 165 163 161 158 155 165 159 107 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.6 -51.4 -50.8 -51.2 -51.4 -50.1 -50.5 -50.6 -51.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.5 0.3 0.8 1.1 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 6 4 4 5 3 5 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 81 81 81 78 76 66 57 50 42 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 20 20 21 21 22 20 15 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 51 48 49 51 35 40 38 7 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 96 71 88 64 35 69 31 24 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 2 10 5 -4 -2 4 11 4 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 190 196 262 171 36 0 43 -147 -280 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 18.6 19.7 20.7 21.7 22.7 24.9 27.8 30.5 32.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 106.6 107.4 108.2 109.0 109.7 110.8 111.5 111.4 110.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 12 13 12 12 12 14 14 13 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 29 29 34 23 26 4 23 32 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):335/ 11 CX,CY: -4/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 566 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 96.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 34.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 7. 10. 12. 12. 13. 13. 12. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 8. 7. 2. 0. -2. -3. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -1. 0. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 6. 7. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 0. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 0. -7. -22. -22. -21. -21. -20. -18. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 10. 13. 17. 18. 15. 2. -3. -6. -8. -10. -10. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 18.6 106.6 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP152016 NEWTON 09/05/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 15.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.61 11.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 112.3 40.3 to 144.5 0.69 9.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 28.2 0.0 to 75.9 0.37 6.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.0 38.9 to 2.1 0.73 11.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.7 18.9 to 1.4 0.87 12.2 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 50.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.77 9.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 70.8 -11.0 to 135.3 0.56 4.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 66.0 638.0 to -68.2 0.81 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.1 to -1.7 0.43 -1.2 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 1.7 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 33% is 5.2 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 78% is 6.0 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 64% is 7.4 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 55% is 9.4 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 41% is 10.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 71% is 10.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 64% is 10.9 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 32.9% 77.5% 64.0% 54.7% 40.8% 70.7% 64.2% Logistic: 43.6% 79.2% 77.2% 73.6% 64.7% 76.6% 66.8% Bayesian: 41.8% 35.5% 21.1% 8.6% 4.0% 8.9% 3.0% Consensus: 39.4% 64.1% 54.1% 45.6% 36.5% 52.1% 44.7% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP152016 NEWTON 09/05/16 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##