* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NEWTON EP152016 09/05/16 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 45 48 53 56 60 59 58 47 37 30 29 29 V (KT) LAND 40 45 48 53 56 53 55 48 34 29 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 40 45 49 53 57 53 54 49 33 29 27 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 9 5 9 7 8 5 3 10 20 27 36 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 6 2 4 3 1 4 4 1 -2 0 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 37 76 14 37 47 25 222 192 204 215 231 N/A N/A SST (C) 30.1 29.9 29.8 29.5 29.2 28.7 29.2 30.5 28.9 23.9 21.2 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 166 164 164 161 158 153 158 172 155 102 74 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -51.9 -51.6 -51.0 -51.4 -50.9 -50.9 -51.0 -51.1 -51.7 -52.4 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.8 0.6 0.0 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 6 4 4 4 5 4 5 4 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 79 82 82 82 79 74 61 56 50 44 39 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 20 19 18 20 21 21 17 15 6 2 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 60 51 50 51 46 27 44 19 21 -8 58 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 104 76 70 82 59 21 42 60 34 16 0 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 3 7 3 0 -1 7 5 1 4 7 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 240 211 217 238 250 -17 0 -7 -216 -380 -614 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 17.3 18.2 19.0 20.0 21.0 23.2 25.7 28.3 30.9 33.2 35.3 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 105.8 106.5 107.2 108.0 108.7 110.0 111.0 111.3 110.7 109.8 108.7 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 11 11 12 12 13 13 13 13 12 11 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 37 31 29 30 28 11 12 1 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):340/ 8 CX,CY: -2/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 603 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 34.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 3. 7. 12. 16. 19. 20. 19. 19. 18. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 7. 4. -1. -9. -10. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -1. 0. 1. 3. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. -1. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. 1. 1. 2. -3. -6. -19. -24. -22. -20. -19. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 8. 13. 16. 20. 19. 18. 7. -3. -10. -11. -11. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 17.3 105.8 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP152016 NEWTON 09/05/16 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.53 6.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 122.5 40.3 to 144.5 0.79 7.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 31.0 0.0 to 75.9 0.41 4.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.0 38.9 to 2.1 0.84 9.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.4 18.9 to 1.4 0.66 6.5 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 40.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.49 4.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 78.2 -11.0 to 135.3 0.61 3.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 42.6 638.0 to -68.2 0.84 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.1 to -1.7 0.45 -0.8 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 1.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.4 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 66% is 5.1 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 42% is 4.9 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 30% is 5.1 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 26% is 6.4 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 45% is 6.3 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 51% is 8.7 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 21.4% 65.6% 42.0% 29.7% 26.2% 44.7% 51.1% Logistic: 53.6% 84.0% 80.2% 74.0% 67.2% 78.8% 64.4% Bayesian: 41.8% 44.5% 26.1% 8.0% 3.0% 20.1% 5.8% Consensus: 38.9% 64.7% 49.4% 37.2% 32.1% 47.9% 40.4% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP152016 NEWTON 09/05/16 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##